Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT OVER KAMA...AND ANOTHER FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AVIATION SITES ON MONDAY MORNING.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THE KAMA 88D LOOP IS
RATHER INTERESTING AT THE MOMENT...DEPICTING MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE BASICALLY ALONG THE CAPROCK MOVING TO
THE WEST...A PSEUDO DRYLINE FROM NEAR SPEARMAN...TO KBGD...TO KAMA
AND YET ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE TO TO NEAR
KDHT. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ORIENTED IN A GENERAL CYCLONIC FASHION
INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PER THE RUC ANALYSIS ON THE SPC WEBSITE...SBCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WITH
THE CAP NEARLY GONE /AS INDICATED BY THE CUE FIELD GOING UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE. SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES APPEAR MARGINAL
BUT INCREASE TO 45KTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE STORMS FIRE. IN
ADDITION...THE 18Z KAMA RAOB SHOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM H7 TO
H5. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
TH LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA AND WINDS DEVELOP
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
ONE WOULD THINK THIS WOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS...BUT THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING SO THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOLLOWED...ALTHOUGH I
DID BUMP THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY. THE OTHER
ISSUE FOR MONDAY WILL BE PRECIP. I DO THINK THERE WILL BE CONVECTION
AROUND ON MONDAY BUT THE COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT HIGH.
I RETAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
BROUGHT THEM SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH
AS AMARILLO. POPS WERE CARRIED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AS
WELL. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. ON TUESDAY...THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 40/50 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD.
ONCE AGAIN...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

BY WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL ENTER A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
DRY DAYS WITH EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES AFTER 00Z. THESE POPS WERE
CARRIED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK
INTO THE 90S. BY FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. NOT TO SAY THAT
NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED NONETHELESS.
MAX TEMPS BY THIS TIME MAY BE APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. MEX
VALUES WERE FOLLOWED OVER THE WEEKEND.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE LIMITED TO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 15 PERCENT
OR LESS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REASON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/08

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

OKZ003-152245-
BEAVER OK-
444 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTY...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF FLORIS MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BEAVER...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS
AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TXZ014-015-019-020-152330-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-GRAY TX-WHEELER TX-
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN COLLINGSWORTH...NORTHEASTERN
DONLEY...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES...

AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ALANREED MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE NEAR GREENBELT LAKE. BOATERS ON THE LAKE SHOULD
RETURN TO SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...AND PERSONS ALONG THE
SHORE AND NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER FROM STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN COLLINGSWORTH...NORTHEASTERN DONLEY...SOUTHEASTERN
GRAY AND SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
SHAMROCK...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JORDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

OKZ003-152345-
BEAVER OK-
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTY...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEAVER AND 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BEAVER MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. UP TO ONE HALF INCH
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BEAVER...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS
AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             1 E HEDLEY              34.87N 100.64W
06/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       DONLEY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00593

BILODEAU

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