Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.UPDATE...
UPON COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532 UNTIL 10 PM. THE ZFP AND
PFM WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CU FIELD IS BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
FORCING AND LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PER RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...THE CAP IS BARELY HOLDING ON AT THIS TIME AND A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON THE THERMOMETER MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS
GOING. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPS UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.
THE COOLEST ZONES WILL LIKELY BE THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ARE DISCUSSED BELOW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS WARM MONDAY IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD REINFORCE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS IN THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS BOTH DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR EITHER DAY BUT IS A
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG. BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY WITH TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE 00Z MEX.

PRELIM POINT TEMP/POPS MAY BE ADJUSTED PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. AT THIS
TIME...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE IN ORDER WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COOLER
TEMPS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DUE TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACTING AS BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME STORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS ACROSS MOST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE

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