Red Flag Warning 35, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

000 
WWUS84 KAMA 051757
RFWAMA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA RESULTING
IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-060300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0035.000000T0000Z-080606T0300Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH AT TIMES...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE THREAT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JC

000 
WWUS84 KAMA 052043
RFWAMA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-060300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0035.000000T0000Z-080606T0300Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
343 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
AT TIMES...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
PERCENT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHERN AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE THREAT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JORDAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER. AN
AVIATION WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY AND ALSO
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT. WINDS DID DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE. MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE
RED FLAG WARNING EARLY...BUT MODELS HINT THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP
IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
CANCELING THE WARNING FOR NOW.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. AN AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...AND ANOTHER MAY BE
NECESSARY ON THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AT MID AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON WHETHER TO ADD POPS OR NOT.
WILL LEAVE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND RED FLAG WARNINGS GOING AS
GRADIENT ONLY TIGHTENS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES.

UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES ON THE DRY AND WINDY SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WINDS COULD AGAIN APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AND OF COURSE FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD GRAZE THE NORTHWEST CWA UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING INTO VERY DRY AIR...SO
DO NOT THINK AT THIS TIME THAT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS ALL THAT GREAT.

A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP ON THE
NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW
MENTIONABLE AND LET LATER SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.

THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HELP TO SET UP A DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE DEGREE OF THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL
DETERMINE IF THIS DRYLINE STAYS DORMANT OR IF IT GETS ACTIVE. RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT STAY TUNED.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER.  SO...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD VERY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SO...WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL
FINALLY FALL OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

11/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1205 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL RESULTED IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALSO...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CAUTION ON AREA LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW AS THE POSITION
OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER