Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS TDA AND EARLY THIS EVE ARE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.  SFC LOW OVER SWRN KS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING
DAY.  SFC TROF EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
THRU PNHDLS TDA.  DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TDA...ALLOWING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH SFC...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON
CAPROCK.  HAVE ISSUED WIND ADZY TDA FOR THIS AREA.  WLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND TROF WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO FCST AREA...CAUSING FIRE
WX CONCERNS. SEE BELOW.

OTHERWISE...NO DEPARTURES FROM THEME OF EARLIER FCST.  STRONG JET
STREAK WILL PASS OVER NRN ZONES THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE...ALLOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT.  COLD
FRONT PASSES THRU ALL OF PNHDLS BEFORE SUNRISE SAT.  WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH TAMER ON SAT...AS POST-FRONTAL SFC RDG MOVES E OF AREA...
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO SLY BY AFTN.  SELY WINDS INCREASE SAT NGT
IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROF...BRINGING ADEQUATE MSTR TO
SUPPORT TSTMS SUN NGT AND MON.  NEW GFS SLOWS EWD PROGRESSION OF
DRYLINE...BUT STILL CALLS FOR ITS PASSAGE TO OCCUR ON MON...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS MON AFTN AND MON EVE.  HAVE KEPT MON
NGT AND TUE DRY...BUT IF ENOUGH MSTR CAN WRAP INTO ERN ZONES...POPS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.  CLOSED LOW DEPARTS FROM AREA TUE EVE...WITH
MILD AND DRY WX EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BRING DWPTS BELOW 20 DEG F
INTO WRN HALF OF FCST AREA TDA.  RESULT WILL BE RH VALUES REACHING
15 PCT OR LOWER FOR ALL BUT NERN TX PNHDL AND ERN OK PNHDL.  BRISK
WINDS ON SUN AND MON...WILL BE MOIST...WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES NOT
BEING REACHED.  03

&&

.AVIATION...
WLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE TDA AS SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND STRONG
HEATING RESULTS IN DEEP MIXING. MAY SEE MID LVL CU DVLP LATE THIS
AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU TDA.

CDFNT FCST TO PUSH SWD TNGT...WITH INCRG MSTR. SCT CU OR CB WILL
DVLP ALONG THE CDFNT...MAINLY IMPACTING OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS. HAVE
INCLUDED CB REMARKS AT KGUY TNGT BEGINNING AS CDFNT APRCHS.

KRAMAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  34  61  37  62 /   5   5   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  72  33  51  34  58 /  30  20   0   0  10
BOISE CITY OK              69  31  52  33  58 /  20  10   0   5  10
BORGER TX                  74  36  61  41  63 /  10   5   0   0  10
BOYS RANCH TX              74  34  64  39  68 /   5   5   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  75  34  63  38  67 /   5   5   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               78  38  61  39  62 /   5   5   0   0  10
DALHART TX                 70  32  59  34  62 /  10   5   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  72  34  53  33  59 /  20  10   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                74  32  64  38  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                77  36  58  37  61 /  20  20   0   0  10
PAMPA TX                   73  36  59  38  61 /  10   5   0   0  10
SHAMROCK TX                81  41  63  41  62 /  10   5   0   0  10
WELLINGTON TX              81  42  63  41  62 /   5   5   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...
     WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

04/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
340 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...AND EXPECTED MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AS A RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE MIXES EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE