Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WWUS84 KAMA 011653
RFWAMA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

.A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
USHER MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S TODAY...WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

OKZ003-TXZ003>005-008>010-013-012200-
/O.EXA.KAMA.FW.W.0010.080301T1800Z-080302T0100Z/
BEAVER-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-
CARSON-
1053 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
7 PM CST THIS EVENING.

MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND AT LEAST A HIGH
FIRE DANGER ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-012200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0010.080301T1800Z-080302T0100Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-MOORE-OLDHAM-POTTER-
DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-
1053 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND AT LEAST A HIGH
FIRE DANGER ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JRC

000 
WWUS84 KAMA 012145
RFWAMA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

.A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THESE DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR
INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S TODAY HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 10
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>013-016-017-020100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080302T0100Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-
345 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND AT LEAST A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN ON
PRECIP CHANCES SUN AND AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST...SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WAA DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES
A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WHICH WILL TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET ACROSS THE
WESTERN COLUMN OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUN. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INITIALLY BUT PRECIP WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ON ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND WITH SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
MAINTAINED TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO TANK SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...WITH JUST
UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES TO
NONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA MON WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTER
A BRIEF WARM UP TUE...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH
INTO THE ROCKIES AND DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MORE WED NIGHT AND THU. THUS REMOVED INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE WED MORNING AND JUST CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES. PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. PRECIP
TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT AS TEMPS DROP WED EVENING...ANY RAIN
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING THU WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALL RAIN.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE EAST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO REDEVELOP FRI AND SAT.
STRONG WAA DURING THE DAY ALLOWS 850 HPA TEMPS TO CLIMB FROM AROUND 7
DEG C FRI TO AROUND 12 DEG C SAT...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TO
THE 50S AND 60S THEN.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN TWO COLUMNS
OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FROM 18Z SAT TO 01Z
SUN. DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK
UP TODAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL TAP INTO THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT AND
BELOW ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HOWEVER BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
EXIST FURTHER EAST. SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE THE
CRITERIA LEVEL OF 15 PERCENT...HELD OF ON ISSUING THE WARNING THERE.
HOWEVER NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA IN CASE THE RED
FLAG WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                76  48  58  25  44 /   0   0  40  40  10
BEAVER OK                  76  43  50  28  46 /   0   0  50  40   5
BOISE CITY OK              79  42  43  22  47 /   0   0  40  30   5
BORGER TX                  76  48  56  30  49 /   0   0  50  40   5
BOYS RANCH TX              78  47  55  25  47 /   0   0  40  40   5
CANYON TX                  75  48  57  24  44 /   0   0  40  40  10
CLARENDON TX               76  51  63  31  48 /   0   0  40  40  10
DALHART TX                 77  40  51  24  47 /   0   0  40  40   5
GUYMON OK                  79  46  49  28  49 /   0   0  50  30   5
HEREFORD TX                75  47  58  25  46 /   0   0  30  40  10
LIPSCOMB TX                76  48  57  30  49 /   0   0  60  40   5
PAMPA TX                   77  50  59  31  49 /   0   0  50  40   5
SHAMROCK TX                76  52  63  32  48 /   0   0  50  40  10
WELLINGTON TX              76  52  64  33  50 /   0   0  50  50  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

08/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
749 PM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
749 PM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES WILL ENHANCE THE
FIRE DANGER. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM ADRIAN...TO DUMAS...TO
BEAVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON