Freeze Warning 2, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
331 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DIPPING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE OBS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW
WIND SPEEDS GUSTING ABOVE 50 KNOTS...WHILE THE AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WITH SNOW FALL.
MODELS ALL AGREE THAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ALLEVIATING SOME OF
THE PRESSURE PACKING WIND SPEEDS WILL TAPER DOWN. NONETHELESS...BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS ABOVE GUIDANCE NEAR THE WIND ADVISORY RANGE.
HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS BEING VERY
WIDE SPREAD OR LASTING ANY LONGER THAN AN HOUR...SO DID NOT ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE GUSTS HOWEVER...AS THERE WILL
BE A SHORT WINDOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE WINDS MAY
GUST NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE. AGAIN THOUGH...ANTICIPATE WINDS
FALLING OFF OF CURRENT OBS TREND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR THE COLD
AIR...CERTAINLY THE AIRMASS SUPPORTS FREEZING TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE COLD AIR DEVELOPING OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS ANY CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS STAYING GENERALLY ABOVE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH 09Z...THEN TAPERING DOWN THROUGH 12Z...AND INCREASING AGAIN
BY 15Z. THAT BEING SAID...AS LONG AS THE SKIES STAY ON THE CLEAR
SIDE...THINKING TEMPS WILL HAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW TO FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. MODELS DID HAVE ONE CONSENSUS IN THAT THEY SHOWED SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES. IN
ADDITION...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT THAT TEMPS
WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PANHANDLES. SO
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PANHANDLES.

TEMPS WILL RECOVER SLOWLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES TO THE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE PANHANDLES AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. GFS AND EURO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDIVIDUALLY FOR PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE BEEN
COMPLETELY OPPOSITE OF EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY THE LAST
TWO DAYS THROUGH MOST OF THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS FAIRLY CONSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES. OF
COURSE...THE EURO IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS AND PROVIDES
BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
KICKING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT KEEPS THE DRY BIAS. OF
COURSE...THE PRECIP CHANCES ALL HINGE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE
CAN RETURN FROM THE GULF. IF THIS FRONT PUSHES CLEAR TO THE
GULF...THEN IT MAY TAKE A DAY LONGER FOR THE MOISTURE TO RETURN THAN
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST. WITH ALL THAT UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...FELT
THAT SOME MENTIONABLE POPS WERE WARRANTED...BUT DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH CHANCE POPS. AT THE SAME TIME...FELT THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME MAY IN FACT PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RETURN. SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME AND FOR THE MOST PART...FAVORED THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR POPS. ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TRENDED CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE IT
APPEARS THE MEX WAS TOO COLD. THINKING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ALLOWING BETTER HEATING
TO TAKE PLACE. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER THURSDAY
MORNING.

JJB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RAISE ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  66  42  76  53 /   0   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  35  66  36  76  52 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              29  65  40  77  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  36  69  45  79  56 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              31  69  41  81  52 /   0   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  31  67  40  77  54 /   0   0   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               37  67  42  74  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
DALHART TX                 30  65  37  79  49 /   0   0   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  31  68  40  81  53 /   0   0   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                30  68  40  77  54 /   0   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                35  65  36  77  53 /   0   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   35  66  44  75  55 /   0   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                39  68  40  76  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              40  69  42  78  56 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

08/14

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