Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KAMA 182001
FFSAMA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
301 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

OKC007-TXC295-357-182300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080818T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEAVER OK-LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-
301 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN OCHILTREE...NORTHERN LIPSCOMB AND BEAVER COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING 
CONTINUING OVER THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL LOW LYING AREAS OF COUNTY 
ROADS SOUTH OF ELMWOOD HAVE 3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADS. 
SOME BRIDGES HAVE BEEN INUNDATED BY LOCAL STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
TURPIN...SLAPOUT...KNOWLES...GATE...FORGAN...ELMWOOD...BRYANS 
CORNER...BOYD...BEAVER AND BALKO

ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RECENT 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE CONTINUED FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF 
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
AMARILLO.

LAT...LON 3653 10091 3698 10092 3698 10001 3661 10003
      3623 10014 3614 10061 3616 10093

$$

KIMBLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN TX NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE PRECIP WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 15
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. KEPT PRECIP IN MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR TO
CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RECENT HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST UNDER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN TIME TO
12Z TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LOW MAY ALSO HELP TO DRAG THOSE STORMS
TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. EVEN IF THE RAIN DOES NOT GET AS HEAVY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THE RUNOFF COULD STILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE STICKS AROUND.

THEN THE PANHANDLES MAY HAVE A BRIEF DRY SPELL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT WITH
IT TO HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEAK BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE
CHANCES OF RAIN DOWN.

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
THREAT FOR THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY
FAIRLY HIGH AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

HYDROLOGY...
THE CANADIAN RIVER AT THE GAGE SITE 19 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO IS
EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO FOR
DETAILS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE
CANADIAN RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MEREDITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS RUNOFF IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN AND CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES. IF WE GET MORE HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT...THIS
COULD PUSH THE FORECAST CREST OF 7.9 FEET EVEN HIGHER. THE FLOOD
STAGE AT THE GAGE SITE 19 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO IS 7.0 FEET. SO
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

11/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES UNTIL 7 AM
CDT TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED TO SUBMIT THEIR RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN AMARILLO TEXAS.

SCHNEIDER