Wind Advisory 17, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 281131
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-281245-
/O.CAN.KALY.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-081228T1400Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...
GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...
DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
631 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION...HENCE THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ032-033-038-082-281930-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0017.081228T1800Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...
DOLGEVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
631 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO TREES AND LIMBS INCLUDING ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES...ALSO TO OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS HOLIDAY
DECORATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. BRING OUTDOOR OBJECTS INDOORS TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

$$

BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 281431
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
931 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058-061-063-066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-290300-
/O.EXA.KALY.WI.Y.0017.081228T1800Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...
GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...
DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CHATHAM...
SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...
NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...
PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
931 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO TREES AND LIMBS INCLUDING
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...THESE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PROPEL LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. BRING OUTDOOR OBJECTS INDOORS TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

$$

NYZ032-033-038-082-290300-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0017.081228T1700Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...
DOLGEVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
931 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO TREES AND LIMBS INCLUDING
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...THESE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PROPEL LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. BRING OUTDOOR OBJECTS INDOORS TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 281808
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-290300-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
108 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL DAMAGE
TO TREES AND LIMBS INCLUDING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...THESE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO PROPEL LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. BRING OUTDOOR OBJECTS INDOORS TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 282218
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
518 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058-061-063-066-083-
084-VTZ013>015-282330-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...
NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
518 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. 

WINDS GUSTS THIS EVENING ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 46 MPH. WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST OF 30 TO 35 MPH.

$$

NYZ032-033-038-042-082-290300-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...
DOLGEVILLE...WARRENSBURG...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
518 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
HERKINER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES.

WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BLOW AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
40 AND 50 MPH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE
TO TREES AND LIMBS...INCLUDING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO...
WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO PROPEL LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. BRING OUTDOOR OBJECTS INDOORS TO MINIMIZE
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 290329
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008


NYZ032-033-038-042-082-290430-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-081229T0300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...
DOLGEVILLE...WARRENSBURG...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
1029 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DURING SUNDAY  AFTERNOON...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY FALLEN IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WIND
DECOUPLED...LIKE AT GLENS FALLS. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...THE
NOCTURNAL WARMUP WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. WE ALSO FOUND
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS APPARENTLY NOT QUITE A STRONG AS PROGGED.

FOR THESE REASONS...WE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO COVER THE FACT THE TEMPS
HAD ALREADY IN SOME CASES DIPPED BELOW ADVERTISED LOWS. FEEL THEY
WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AREAS OF FOG DESCRIBE THE FORECAST AND THUS FAR...NO NEED TO UPGRADE
TO ANYTHING ELSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE 925MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN +10C TO +15C. WITH SOME
MIXING EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60 ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST CHANCE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY FORECAST
FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW THE COLD FRONT ONLY PRODUCING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS LIQUID FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAYBE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL HAVE LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS BEYOND THE RISES PRODUCED BY SNOW MELT. SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BECOME WINDY...BUT MOS
FORECASTS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST WE WILL NOT NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS PASSING TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...AND A SMALL SCALE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS GENERALLY
INHIBIT WINDS FROM GETTING INTO WIND ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS
BEHIND SUCH COLD FRONTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SCATTERED
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH SOME GREATER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE LAKE ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

DRY MONDAY AS A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS
IN MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLAT ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT 500 HPA ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.

WHILE BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
/SURFACE LOW RIDING THE TWIN TIERS...TO CENTRAL MASS...TO THE GULF
OF MAINE/...THEY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12 UTC GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. HAVE GONE
WITH CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WITH AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WED...THIS LOOKS TO BE ENTIRELY A SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM. WHILE LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...UP TO A FEW INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...ESP
ACROSS THE DACKS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR WED NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW CHILLY NIGHTS...ESP IN
AREAS THAT GET ANY FRESH SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE APPROACHING FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THEN REFORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS SCENARIO PRESENTS SEVERAL DIFFICULT FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR THE
ALY CWA...AS A TRACK OF THIS TYPE COULD LEAD TO MIXING WITH SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING DRY SLOTTED BETWEEN THE LAKES SYSTEM
AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. THE 12 UTC MREF PLUMES SHOW A WIDE
VARIETY OF QPF AND P-TYPES. AT THIS POINT...WILL PLAY THE FORECAST
AS A CHC OF -SN FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A CHC
-PL/-FZRA/-SN FOR THE SOUTH AND WILL TRY TO REFINE FORECAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM/S EVOLUTION BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CHALLENGING NIGHT TO FLY IN AND OUT OF OUR TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS QUITE WIDESPREAD ALREADY AS OF 06Z AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VLIFR...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPOU. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION OVER SNOW
COVERED GROUND WAS THE CAUSE. A CLASSIC INVERSION THAT RESULTS
FROM SURFACE COOLING OF SUCH A WARM AIR MASS WAS VERY EVIDENT
ON THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING. WINDS AT KPOU HAVE CALMED OUT...WHILE
WINDS AT KGFL PICKED UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WINDS
AT KALB...WHICH OFTEN RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BY MIXING...HAVE SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING KALB TO GO CALM...BUT FEEL VISIBLITY WILL
DETERIORATE SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE LAST 2 SFC
OBS ARE CONFIRMING OUR FEELING. THE CIG AT KALB WAS JUST ABOVE
LIFR ANYWAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE SNOW
COVERED GROUND WITH THE SUN BLOCKED OUT BY LOW OVERCAST. AT THIS
POINT LOOKING FOR IFR TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING AT KALB AND
LATE MORNING AT KGFL AND KPOU...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
KALB AND KGFL LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IT LOOKS
LIKE MVFR AT BEST DUE TO MIST AND/OR LOW CLOUDS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BETWEEN 1900 AND
2000 GMT...SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST...INCREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH VISIBLITY 6 MILES OR BETTER. LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KGFL AND KALB BUT CIGS SHOULD BE
VFR. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AWAY LEAVING
SOME SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS.

BASED ON THE INCOMING 00Z ALY RAOB DATA...INDICATING ONLY ABOUT
20KTS OF WIND AT THE 2000 FOOT LEVEL...HAVE KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF OUR TERMINALS. JUST NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO WARRANT PLACING
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...VFR...WINDY.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SN AND IFR.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. AN AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
BROUGHT BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAPITAL
REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL IN SOUTHWEST HERKIMER COUNTY...WHILE ONE
QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WHILE THE RAIN FELL...SO
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK INTO THE SNOW PACK.

BY THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW MELTING TO BEGIN. GRADUAL SNOW
MELT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM OVERNIGHT. RIVER LEVELS WILL START TO SLOWLY RISE DUE TO RUNOFF
FROM SNOW MELT...WITH MINOR RISES EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY IS WHEN THE MOST APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT SHOULD OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA RISE INTO THE 50S WITH POSSIBLE
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SIGNIFICANT MELTING...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING THE ENTIRE AREA HAD A SNOW PACK...BUT WATER EQUIVALENT
VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS BUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

SINCE A PROLONGED THAW IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS
OF SUBSTANTIAL WARMTH...ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD NOT MELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONLY UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SO WHILE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED...THEY WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO THE RUNOFF.
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT OFF. AT THIS
TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING MAY OCCUR STARTING
SUNDAY EVENING.

IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
THE UPPER MOHAWK BASIN...WHERE THE WEST CANADA CREEK BELOW HINCKLEY
DAM AND NEAR KAST BRIDGE MAY GO OVER FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING OR
NIGHT. EVEN THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUANTITY OF RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL SLOW THE MELTING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MELTING MAY OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS WHERE
A SNOW PACK WILL STILL REMAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-281200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
515 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
ONE HALF MILE. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS VERY MILD AND
MOIST AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...AND POTENTIALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE MOISTURE LADEN SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAS THAT COULD BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE INCLUDE...BUT
WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THE MOHAWK BASIN...THE HOUSATONIC BASIN...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.