Wind Advisory 11, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 280231
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-281000-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0011.081028T1600Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM GLENS FALLS TO POUGHKEEPSIE...
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...FOR THE TACONICS...WASHINGTON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH...AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 280746
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-281630-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0011.081028T1600Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM GLENS FALLS TO POUGHKEEPSIE...
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...FOR THE TACONICS...WASHINGTON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. 

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST TODAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH...
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 281444
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-282300-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0011.081028T1600Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LONG ISLAND WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
STORM LIFTS NORTH...AWAY FROM THE REGION.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 282044
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-290400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
444 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM GLENS FALLS TO POUGHKEEPSIE... INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...FOR THE TACONICS...WASHINGTON COUNTY...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY..

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...
REACHING WELL INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH
UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
STORM MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 290239
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-291000-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
1039 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM GLENS FALLS TO POUGHKEEPSIE...INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...FOR THE TACONICS...WASHINGTON COUNTY...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

DEEP LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 290830
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084-VTZ013>015-290930-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081029T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...
ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...
AMENIA...MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
430 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS SPEEDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR
TODAY.


$$

AVIATION/FIRE WX FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY USHERING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS ALL WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR IS
DRAWN INTO REGION AT ALL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.  CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HINTS OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVOLVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  ANOTHER KEY
FEATURE IS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHERE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE WHICH LEADS TOWARD BLOCKING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE.  WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING
BAROCLINICITY IN THE MID LEVELS...THINK WE WILL SEE DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN EVOLVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA
/IN ADDITION OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE -12C/.  SO
WILL BRING IN PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER AND KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

PLENTY OF DISCUSSION LEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
GRIDS.  THOUGHTS ARE FOR A SURFACE TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
PERHAPS TRACKING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY... STAY
TUNED AS HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIATE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE BASED
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON WHERE THE
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND THE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES. HOWEVER...THEY
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS IS
FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW
PASSING IT OVER CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS STILL EAST OF THE NAM. THE ECMWF IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT AS DEEP. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...GEM
GLOBAL...AND UKMET ARE NOT AS DEVELOPED THAN AS THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE GFS. THE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR
LEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING EVENT...SO WILL TREND FORECAST TO WETTER
AND SNOWIER SOLUTION AS THE MODELS ARE SUPPORTING A DEEP POLAR
VORTEX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DRAWING BACK INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SYSTEM TAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. HPC INDICATES
THE GEFS MEAN FOCUSES THE BEST WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT
WHERE WILL HAVE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN
INTO REGION AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE GFS
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS BUT MODEL DIFFERS ON
LOCATION OF HEAVIER QPF...SO USED GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE MOVING EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND TAPER OFF AS AIR TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM.  ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY. A POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH EAST SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS PERIOD...HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 60 AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40...JUST A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND STEADIER AS A STORM SYSTEM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NJ SHORE...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONDITIONS
WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL...WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO MIX
WITH SNOW AT KGFL BY THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KALB AND EVEN KPOU BY LATER TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS
WELL.

OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED AM...IFR/MVFR. RA/SN LIKELY.
WED PM-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY USHERING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS ALL WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR IS
DRAWN INTO REGION AT ALL LEVELS.

MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY DROP TO MINIMUMS 60 TO 70
PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR EAST DEEPENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL RIVER WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WERE CANCELLED AS THE HOOSIC AND
WALLOOMSAC RIVERS RAPIDLY FELL TO BELOW FLOOD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER WAS STILL RISING EARLY TODAY BUT IT IS WELL BELOW
FLOOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MODELS...WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER
THE SOGGY HOOSIC AND HOUSATONIC RIVER BASINS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD COME AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PRELIMINARY
MODELING HAS THE HOUSATONIC RISING AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO FEET
BUT STOPPING SHORT OF FLOOD...WITH THE HOOSIC RIVER COMING UP THREE
TO FOUR FEET AFTER HAVING DROPPED OVER SIX FEET FROM THE FLOOD PEAK
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
ON WEDNESDAY AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND
WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF MORE SHOWERS.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

NYZ032-033-042-281100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-
523 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
CANADA. FORECAST DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ001-NYZ038-039-041-043-054-082>084-VTZ013>015-281100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
523 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
CANADA. FORECAST DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MODERATE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN
TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ040-047>053-058>061-063>066-281100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
MONTGOMERY-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
523 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.