Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FAIR...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER TONIGHT...INTO THURSDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE HAS RESULTED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION AS OF 1920Z...AFTER SOME EARLIER CONVECTION GRAZED
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HAZY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH
MOST TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER.

GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION HAS NOT EXPERIENCED ANY CONVECTION
THUS FAR...ABUNDANT ENERGY/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. THE LIFTING
MECHANISM TO TAP THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE W...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO NE OHIO. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO AN
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING FROM THE W. THUS...THE
LIFTING MECHANISM WILL REACH OUR REGION BETWEEN 6 PM ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS...7 TO 9 PM ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND 9-11 PM ACROSS SE REGIONS. THUS...BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACTUALLY BE THIS EVENING...CLOSER TO
SUNSET...AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST A SEVERE TSTM WATCH TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END FROM WNW TO ESE AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS SE
AREAS...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR MINS...GENERALLY INDICATED A MAV/MET MOS BLEND...WITH MINS
MAINLY 60-65 WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU...SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S EXPECTED WED IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING BY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE...WE DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THU NT...INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME COULD BRUSH THE ADIRONDACKS
LATE THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT
MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR FRI NT INTO AT
LEAST SUN MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON FRI...WITH MAXES OF
85-90 WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SAT/SUN...MAINLY IN THE
80-85 RANGE IN VALLEYS...75-80 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR LATE MON INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
NY STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE DACKS WILL MISS KALB AND
KPOU...ALTHOUGH MAY COME CLOSE TO KGFL FOR THE MID AFTN HOURS. HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR TWO HOURS FOR KGFL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY BRUSHING THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE AFTN WILL
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME DEVELOPING TOWERING CU...AS
UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WESTERN NY...ALONG WITH CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE DISPLAY...IS SHOWING LITTLE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER...MAINLY DUE TO THE SURFACE
FORCING /COLD FRONT/ AS WELL AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS /UPPER JET IN
EXCESS OF 100 KTS/ IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS
MICHIGAN. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...AFTER 00Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
T-STORMS WHICH MAY INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. THIS THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT BY 06Z. SOME
WIND WILL KEEP UP OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
DROPPING...SO THIS MAY HELP INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL
FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL ADD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WHILE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
RIGHT NOW AT ALL THE TERMINALS...A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG...ESP AT THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPOU...LOOKS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE AND SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...
WED PM-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR...COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT...INTO THURSDAY.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL INTO THE 30-45 PERCENT RANGE WED
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE RH
SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE WED NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 10-15 MPH. WINDS
WILL BECOME W TO NW FOR WED...AT 10-20 MPH.

HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FOR WED AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...SOME RAIN FELL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW THAT
AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN FELL IN THIS AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT STREAM RESPONSE IS
ONLY EXPECTED WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCUR.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...SND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

CTZ001-013-NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-111200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL FORM ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084-
VTZ013>015-111200-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ042-043-101930-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITEHALL TO WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 46
MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ROGERS ROCK CAMPGROUND AND BOLTON LANDING BY 250 PM EDT
HAGUE BY 255 PM EDT
HULETTS LANDING BY 300 PM EDT
WHITEHALL BY 305 PM EDT

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

JPV/KGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE PLEASANT           43.47N 74.41W
06/10/2008                   HAMILTON           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINE DOWN. TREES BLOCKING ROADS.

&&

BGM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ039-040-047-102115-
SCHOHARIE NY-MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
433 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY AND FULTON
COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SHARON SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF COBLESKILL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 38 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHARON SPRINGS BY 445 PM EDT
AMES BY 450 PM EDT
CANAJOHARIE AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PLAIN BY 455 PM EDT
FONDA BY 510 PM EDT
TRIBES HILL...6 MILES WEST OF FORT JOHNSON AND 8 MILES WEST OF
AMSTERDAM BY 515 PM EDT

JPV/KGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
519 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ039-082-102200-
SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
519 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN FULTON COUNTY...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHNSTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAYFIELD BY 525 PM EDT
BROADALBIN BY 530 PM EDT
CRANBERRY CREEK BY 535 PM EDT

JPV/KGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
544 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ058-063-064-102230-
WESTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-
544 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN GREENE AND WESTERN ULSTER COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GRAHAMSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEST SHOKAN BY 555 PM EDT
WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND BY 600 PM EDT
PHOENICIA...MOUNT TREMPER AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENNETH L WILSON
CAMPGROUND BY 605 PM EDT
LANESVILLE BY 610 PM EDT
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODSTOCK BY 615 PM EDT

KL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
547 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             1 N RICHFIELD SPRINGS   42.87N 74.99W
06/10/2008  M1.25 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BGM/ROK