Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY AND BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST MAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 02Z FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS
NORTH (INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT). THE THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL
TO ONE IN DIAMETER AND STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH. (SEE OUR WCN
PRODUCT FOR FUTHER INFORMATION).

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WE HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS OWN IT MOVES SOUTH. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LINED UP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY..ARCING BACK
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MORE CELLS MIGHT FIRE UP ALONG THIS LINE.

REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
WITH LOCAL TWEAKS WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS IS THE MUCH EASIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION. BOTH MODELS FORECAST H850 TEMPS
TO DROP AS LOW +2C ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS...+6C OVER OUR
HEADS...+8C OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
UPSTREAM SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SURFACE ONES ARE ONLY IN THE 50S TO THE
NORTH OF THIS FRONT WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND +03. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
ON BY WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRODUCING
SOME INNOCUOUS STRATUS-CU CLOUDS OF ITS OWN.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST PLACES MIGHT NEVER LOOSE A BREEZE
TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO AROUND 50 IN
THE TRI-CITY AREAS...40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MID 30S AND FROST POSSIBLE. THE
BREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FROST BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUT CERTAINLY NOT IN THE ZONES.

A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVERY NICELY FROM THE MORNING CHILL...REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S
VALLEY LOCATION...60S ELSEWHERE...STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. BY THIS TIME
THOUGH...H850 TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM QUITE A BIT...BACK
OVER 10C SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY FROST WOULD TAKE PLACE. NO
MENTION OF IT NOW (OTHER THAN THE HWO).

WENT WITH BLEND OF MACHINE GUIDANCE REGARDING DAYTIME
HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING HUMIDITIES OVER OUR CWA.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY.  WITH NO ATMOSPHERIC PROTUBERANCES TO SPEAK OF...THE NEXT
REAL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT...BASICALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY NICELY WITH THE GMOS.
ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW IN GETTING THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA.  MEX HIGH
TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH.  HPC CUTS VALUES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES...WHICH
IS STILL AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR THE LOWS...
ITS UP TO ABOUT ONLY A 2 DEGREES CUT.  THESE ARE ALSO RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FAIR CONDITIONS OF DAYS 3 TO 5...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE ENTIRE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS AROUND
ALBANY AND GLENS FALLS THROUGH 02Z...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN WELL SURPASSED AND CU/CB HAS
DEVELOPED OFF THE TERRAIN YET NO REFLECTIVITYS PER THE LATEST RADAR
SCAN AS OF 17Z.  WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING NICELY
ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION.  PRECEDING
THIS FRONT...LAKE CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATION FACTORS COULD TOUCH OFF
SOME SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN WE WILL LIKELY AWAIT FOR THE
FRONT TO PROVIDE A MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 05Z-12Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

FROPA OCCURS FOR KPOU BY 15Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
MODERATE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...
WED THRU SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED STORMS (MORE NUMEROUS NORTH) WILL EFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. IN FACT...SHOWERS AND MORE NON SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TOMORROW VIA A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE WIND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...LOWER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE.

CLEAR AND COOL TUESDAY NIGHT. A BREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS MIGHT
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF DEW AND FULL RECOVERY. RH VALUES SLATED
TO REACH 80-90 PERCENT...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 100
PERCENT EXPECTED.

A DRY SUNNY DAY ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
WIND...AVERAGING 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. RIVERS WILL SEE SOME
INCREASES IN FLOW AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AHPS GRAPHS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT ALL REMAINING WITHIN THEIR BANKS. DRY WEATHER THEN
TAKES HOLD FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH RIVER LEVELS
RECEDE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...BGM/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
326 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-191100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
326 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 838 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALBANY...FULTON...
HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE...WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-191100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-
326 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...AND MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

NYZ039-040-048>050-182130-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
454 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN MONTGOMERY...SCHENECTADY...SARATOGA AND
FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT JOHNSON...OR ABOUT
OVER AMSTERDAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HAGAMAN BY 500 PM EDT
ROTTERDAM JUNCTION...GLENVILLE AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF GALWAY BY 510 PM
EDT
SCOTIA BY 520 PM EDT

ELH/HWJIV

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