Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGION HAS ENDED UP IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX. ALSO HAVE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS QUITE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING. ALL THIS IS FUELING STORMS. KALB
00Z/SUN SOUNDING CAPE ABOUT 1500 CAPE J/KG AND KBUF ABOUT 2500
J/KG. STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD
LOSS THEIR INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASED FROM 1.17 INCHES TO 1.58 INCHES FROM THE
12Z/SAT TO 00Z/SUN SOUNDING. SPOTTERS REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE STORMS
HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INTO SOUTHEASTERN BENNINGTON COUNTIES...WITH SOUTHERN
SARATOGA COUNTY BEING HIT PARTICULARLY HARD. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING COULD BECOME IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER REGION DURING THE DAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
HEATING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. EVEN THOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER WEAK...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH. MONDAY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS OUR CWA...AND OFF LONG ISLAND BY THU AM.  LOW PRESSURE
WAVE HANGS BACK BEHIND LOW AND ONLY GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH THU...PARTICULARLY FOR
DAYTIME PERIODS.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAVE SHOULD BEGIN A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
COULD BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.  WENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEX MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS APPROACHING WESTERN NEW YORK. THE STORMS EXTENDED
FROM WEST OF BINGHAMTON NORTH TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.
OUTSIDE THESE STORMS FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR. VISIBILITY
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE APPROACHES
THE DEWPOINT...WITH AREAS OF IFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO FOG. FARTHER
SOUTH...STORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED IN THE KPOU TAF AS A TEMPO BETWEEN 10PM AND 2AM.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BUT TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE NEAR CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...POSSIBLY SOME SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA
MON...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR/MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASED FROM 1.17 INCHES TO 1.58 INCHES FROM THE 12Z/SAT TO
00Z/SUN SOUNDING. SPOTTERS REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH IN
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO
SOUTHEASTERN BENNINGTON COUNTIES...WITH SOUTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY
BEING HIT PARTICULARLY HARD. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD
BECOME IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...RIVERS WERE BACK TO NORMAL OR
CONTINUE RECEDE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-271100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO EASTERLY AT 25 TO 30
MPH. THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND MAY LEAD
TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...SOME
MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-271100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

NON SEVERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER ARE THE THREATS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1136 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ041-050-084-270430-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
1136 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SARATOGA
COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 1133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILTON TO BALLSTON
SPA TO BURNT HILLS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SARATOGA SPRINGS
TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARATOGA SPRINGS TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLIFTON PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ROUND LAKE BY 1145 PM EDT...
MECHANICVILLE BY 1155 PM EDT...
GREENWICH BY 1210 AM EDT...
CAMBRIDGE BY 1220 AM EDT.

KL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1140 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ032-033-270415-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
1140 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTIES...

AT 1138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BIG MOOSE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLD FORGE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF EIGHTH LAKE CAMPGROUND BY 1150 PM EDT
BROWN TRACT POND CAMPGROUND BY 1155 PM EDT
RAQUETTE LAKE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
GOLDEN BEACH CAMPGROUND BY 1205 AM EDT
FORKED LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 1210 AM EDT
BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE...6 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE EATON CAMPGROUND AND 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE DURANT CAMPGROUND BY 1215 AM EDT

ELH/TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1154 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ047-270445-
SCHOHARIE NY-
1154 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR RICHMONDVILLE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF COBLESKILL...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RICHMONDVILLE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
COBLESKILL BY 1210 AM EDT
8 MILES NORTH OF MIDDLEBURGH BY 1220 AM EDT
CENTRAL BRIDGE AND SCHOHARIE BY 1225 AM EDT

ELH/TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1156 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ063-064-270445-
EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-
1156 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN ULSTER COUNTY...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAMSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...WEST SHOKAN AND PHOENICIA BY 1205 AM EDT
MOUNT TREMPER BY 1210 AM EDT
KENNETH L WILSON CAMPGROUND BY 1220 AM EDT
WOODSTOCK AND WEST HURLEY BY 1225 AM EDT
LAKE KATRINE BY 1235 AM EDT
SAUGERTIES AND LAKE KATRINE BY 1240 AM EDT

ELH/TAW

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