Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MID HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL ADD ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER REGION DURING THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RATHER WEAK...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH. MONDAY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS OUR CWA...AND OFF LONG ISLAND BY THU AM.  LOW PRESSURE
WAVE HANGS BACK BEHIND LOW AND ONLY GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH THU...PARTICULARLY FOR
DAYTIME PERIODS.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAVE SHOULD BEGIN A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
COULD BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.  WENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEX MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
EASTERN NY TAF SITES AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. A MID LEVEL CAP WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DUE TO HEIGHT
FALLS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...SO SOME SURFACE BASED CU WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BY MID AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ACROSS W NY...SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND LAKE ONTARIO...WILL PRESS
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 22Z. HAVE INCLUDED A CB QUALIFIER AFTER THIS TIME AS WELL
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THE ACTIVITY COULD HAVE SOME THUNDER.
ACTIVITY WILL PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. WITHIN ANY OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY...VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH KGFL AND
MAYBE EVEN KALB AS WELL TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
THERE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP AROUND KPOU...SO ASIDE
FROM THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS EVENING...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ACTIVITY ON LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUN
AFTN...WHEN THE RETURN OF HEATING WILL HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME CLEARING OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...IN ADDITION TO ANY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS LIGHT
WINDS...WILL HELP SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AT
KGFL. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AFTER 04Z. A LIGHT
BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANY IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING AT KALB...SO WOULD
ONLY EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG THERE AT WORST FOR THE SECOND
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
ALSO HELP PREVENT KPOU FROM DROPPING TO IFR TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SUN...VFR/MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA.
MON...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR/MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MID HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 55 TO 65 PERCENT ACROSS THE TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS WERE BACK TO NORMAL OR CONTINUE RECEDE FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVE ACROSS AREA.

MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS PUTS HEAVIER RAIN NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE THE NAM12 DEVELOPS HEAVIER RAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID HUDSON REGION EAST
INTO CONNECTICUT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN
CONVECTION WITH PWAT AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES THIS
EVENING. BASIN-WIDE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE A LOT LESS...PROBABLY
0.3 TO 0.7 INCH. SINCE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY MOIST SOME RUNOFF WILL
OCCUR FROM AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. RISES MAY OCCUR ON SOME
STREAMS AND MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

THIS AFTERNOON THE LEVEL OF HINCKLEY RESERVOIR WAS ONLY ABOUT 6
INCHES BELOW THE SPILLWAY ELEVATION OF 1225 FEET...HAVING COME UP
A LITTLE OVER FOUR FEET IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAIN FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY
BOOST THE INFLOW ENOUGH TO BRING IT AN INCH OR TWO OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HINCKLEY NORMALLY SPILLS OVER DURING THE SPRING AND THE
AMOUNT EXPECTED TO SPILL WILL BE BARELY NOTICEABLE DOWNSTREAM.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-271100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
421 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR GREATER.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
OTHERWISE...NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...SOME
MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-271100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-
421 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

NON SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER ARE THE THREATS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ039-041-082-262030-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN FULTON COUNTY MOVING INTO SARATOGA
COUNTY...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 50 MPH WINDS AND POSSIBLE HALF
INCH HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHNSTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAYFIELD BY 355 PM EDT
BROADALBIN BY 405 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRANBERRY CREEK BY 415 PM EDT
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTHAMPTON BEACH PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 430 PM
EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH IN AN HOUR FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

WASULA

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