Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS51 KALY 091251
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

NYC041-043-091315-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080109T1315Z/
HAMILTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
750 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EST
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 746 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF SABATTIS TO HOFFMEISTER...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES WEST OF SARANAC LAKE TO 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPECULATOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FORKED LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 755 AM EST...
  SLED HARBOR...MOFFITT BEACH CAMPGROUND...LAKE EATON CAMPGROUND AND
  EAGLE NEST BY 800 AM EST...
  PERKINS CLEARING...LEWEY LAKE CAMPGROUND...LAKE DURANT CAMPGROUND
  AND SPECULATOR BY 805 AM EST...
  CATLIN LAKE BY 810 AM EST...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4397 7425 4391 7431 4382 7422 4382 7411
      4373 7412 4372 7421 4355 7419 4324 7515
      4330 7516 4334 7509 4408 7517 4409 7514
      4406 7508 4406 7499 4412 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 245DEG 52KT 4439 7458 4347 7466

$$

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

NAS

000 
WWUS51 KALY 091317
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
816 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

NYC041-043-091326-
/O.EXP.KALY.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080109T1315Z/
HAMILTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
816 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 815 AM EST...

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS 
WEAKENED AND THE WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4397 7425 4391 7431 4382 7422 4382 7411
      4373 7412 4372 7421 4355 7419 4324 7515
      4330 7516 4334 7509 4408 7517 4409 7514
      4406 7508 4406 7499 4412 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 245DEG 52KT 4439 7456 4347 7464

$$

TAW

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. COOLER...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH GREAT LAKES NOW...HEADED FOR CANADA.
BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET WILL PROVIDE SOME
SPEED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PROVIDE SOME
FRONTOGENESIS...SO THERE ARE VARIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS TO SUPPORT
LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER...AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR POINTS EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. DEEP FLOW FROM BOUNDARY LAYER ON UP MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME DRY LAYERS AND BREAKS IN THE BAND
OF RAIN. SOME INSTABILITY NOTED IN GUIDANCE FROM SURFACE THROUGH
700 MB...AND FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLY THIS MORNING IN OH...SO
AGAIN...INDICATING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE SO DEEP...SO QPF
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL...AND ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS <0.25 OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH...WARMTH AND
CONTINUED SNOW/ICE MELT REQUIRES FLOOD WATCH IN AREAS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. HIGHS TODAY IN 50S...NEAR 60 IN SOME AREAS.

ONCE SYSTEM EXITS...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WEST WINDS TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LAPSE RATES TRENDING
DRY ADIABATIC. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN NORTHERN
AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH RAPID
DIMINISHING OF WINDS BY/AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL...SOME LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING AS LOW AS THEY COULD IF WINDS GO CALM. LOWS IN 20S AND 30S
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION FAIRLY WEAK TOMORROW...WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE 40S...NEAR 50
SOUTHERN AREAS...AROUND 40 ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...AND DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF WARM
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM. SOME SNOW AND SLEET TO BEGIN IN
WESTERN AREAS...THEN ALL AREAS QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET.

SOME HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AREAS FROM ALB TO POU MAY STAY RIGHT AT
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MAINLY A COLD RAIN AND SOME SLEET...BUT
ACKNOWLEDGING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN EVEN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS AS WELL...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEARER SINCE SLIGHT CHANGES IN ELEVATION IN SHORT DISTANCES
COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN AT 33 DEGREES AND
FREEZING RAIN AT 31 OR 32 DEGREES.

SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. MANY AREAS COULD
SEE A COATING OF ICE BEFORE EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO RAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MIDDAY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY IN UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP 500 HPA TROF OVER NATION/S MIDSECTION DIGS SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST
INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY INTO CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A LOWS FORMS ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST
WITH CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS TO
ITS TRACK. NCEP LOOKS TO BE FAVORING THE ECM POSITION. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS
STAGE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS PERIOD. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT GLENS FALLS
WINDS CALMED OUT AROUND 0500 GMT AND HEAVY FOG HAS SET IN WHICH
IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. AT ALBANY CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE AIR MIXED.  FARTHER SOUTH...AT
POUGHKEEPSIE FOG FORMED IN THE LATE EVENING WITH CALM WINDS BUT
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STARTED UP AND MIXED
OUT THE FOG AND CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
UNTIL DAYBREAK...THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN TAFS UNTIL AROUND 1300/1400 GMT WHEN SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AND GUSTY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAFS. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING
                    MOSTLY TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
SAT...VFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
      CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE SLOWLY FROM MELTING SNOW AS A
RESULT OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH YESTERDAY. A SUDDEN DROP IN THE
WATER LEVEL ON THE WILLIAMS RIVER IN VERMONT WAS MORE THAN LIKELY
A RESULT OF SOME ICE LETTING GO. NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED SO FAR. SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY AND A LACK OF SOLAR ENERGY.
THE FIRST CONCERN IS WHAT WILL RESULT FROM THE RAIN THAT IS
FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WEATHER WILL COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT BUT THEN RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE HUDSON
AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TYPE OF TRACK HAS A HISTORY
OF BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE REGION AND FOLLOWING BOTH THE WARM
SPELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TODAY COULD RESULT IN THINGS BEING WORSE ON FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEK END. IN OUR COLDER NORTHERN REGIONS ICE ON THE RIVERS
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 9 AND 12 INCHES THICK AND ICE
JAMMING COULD BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.  DEFINITELY A SITUATION
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-042-
     043-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013>015.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ014-015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
526 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

NYZ039-042-043-082-VTZ014-015-101030-
SOUTHERN FULTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN FULTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
526 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY AND WINDHAM COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AT AROUND 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ040-041-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013-101030-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
526 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
INCLUDING THE SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS AREAS...CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BENNINGTON COUNTY...THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AT AROUND 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ032-033-038-101030-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
526 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AT
40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.