River Flood Warning 7, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WGUS81 KALY 072101
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
401 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008

CTC005-080901-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080209T1255Z/
/FLVC3.1.ER.080207T2127Z.080208T1200Z.080209T0655Z.NO/
401 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING... 
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT FALLS VILLAGE.
* FROM 4 PM THURSDAY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 4 PM
  THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 7.6 FEET BY 7 AM FRIDAY. THE
  RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER 1 AM SATURDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...THE WATER REACHES RIVERSIDE ROAD AT KENT 
  SCHOOL AND FLOODS THE PICNIC AREA ALONG ROUTE 7 NEAR HOUSATONIC 
  MEADOWS. 

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      7 PM  1 AM  7 AM  1 PM  7 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG DAY TIME   THU   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI

HOUSATONIC RIVER
  FALLS VILLAG  7.0    6.9 THU 04 PM   7.2   7.5   7.6   7.5   7.0

$$

CTC005-080901-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080209T0000Z/
/GAYC3.1.ER.080207T1652Z.080208T0000Z.080208T1800Z.NO/
401 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING... 
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT GAYLORDSVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.3 FEET BY 7 PM 
  THURSDAY. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER 1 
  PM FRIDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...WATER REACHES NEW MILFORD FOUNDRY AND 
  YOUNGFIELD STREET

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      7 PM  1 AM  7 AM  1 PM  7 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG DAY TIME   THU   FRI   FRI   FRI   FRI

HOUSATONIC RIVER
  GAYLORDSVILL  8.0    8.1 THU 04 PM   8.3   8.3   8.1   8.0   7.5

$$

000 
WGUS81 KALY 080849
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
349 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

CTC005-082049-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080209T0900Z/
/GAYC3.1.ER.080207T1652Z.080208T0515Z.080209T0300Z.NO/
349 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT GAYLORDSVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT  2 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 8.3 FEET ON FRIDAY...THEN FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE AFTER 10 PM FRIDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...WATER REACHES NEW MILFORD FOUNDRY AND 
  YOUNGFIELD STREET.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      7 PM  1 AM  7 AM  1 PM  7 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG DAY TIME   FRI   SAT   SAT   SAT   SAT

HOUSATONIC RIVER
  GAYLORDSVILL  8.0    8.3 FRI 02 AM   8.1   7.9   7.7   7.6   7.1

$$

000 
WGUS81 KALY 081936
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
236 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

CTC005-082006-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080209T0000Z/
/FLVC3.1.ER.080207T2141Z.080208T1000Z.080208T1830Z.NO/
236 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT FALLS VILLAGE.
* AT  2 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* IMPACT...WHEN THE RIVER DROPS BELOW 7 FEET...FLOODING IN THE PARK
  ABOVE THE DAM IN THE FIELDS NEAR LIMEROCK ROAD IN CANAAN WILL
  GRADUALLY END. 

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      7 PM  1 AM  7 AM  1 PM  7 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG DAY  TIME   FRI   SAT   SAT   SAT   SAT

HOUSATONIC RIVER
  FALLS VILLAGE  7.0   7.0 FRI 02 PM   6.9   6.8   6.7   6.5   6.1

$$

CTC005-082006-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080209T0900Z/
/GAYC3.1.ER.080207T1652Z.080208T0515Z.080208T1429Z.NO/
236 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT GAYLORDSVILLE.
* AT  1 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...WHEN THE RIVER DROPS BELOW 8 FEET...FLOODING ENDS AT THE 
  NEW MILFORD FOUNDRY AND YOUNGFIELD STREET

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      7 PM  1 AM  7 AM  1 PM  7 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG DAY  TIME   FRI   SAT   SAT   SAT   SAT

HOUSATONIC RIVER
  GAYLORDSVILLE  8.0   7.9 FRI 01 PM   7.9   7.8   7.6   7.5   7.1

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE MAINE
COAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP LINGERING
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NEW YORK CONTINUES TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
SNOW. ALSO AN AREA OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF. SNOW SHOULD BE MOST STEADY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE DRACKS AND GREENS. THATS WHY WE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE WARNINGS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO WITHER DOWN AFTER 2PM. MIGHT BE LOOKING AT THE
MOHAWK/HUDSON CONFLUENCE AT THAT TIME...BUT WILL RE-EXAMINE AT THAT
TIME. FOR NOW...WE STILL HAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SMALL SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION SO PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WILL
BE FORECAST FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH) FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS THE
TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...HIGHS FRIDAY UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40.

MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM AND DEEPER LAYERED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL ZONES FOR
SATURDAY. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SNOW AMOUNTS. A LITTLE MORE CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREA...AND LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SOUTH WHERE
IT COULD WARM UP ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FEATURES A SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT...WHERE THE PNA
TELECONNECTION BECOMES WEAKLY POSITIVE AND THE THE NAO NEUTRAL.  A
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA FOR THE STRETCH.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND PER THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...CAN GGEM AND
ENSEMBLES.  NONETHELESS...TEMPS AT H850 WILL BE AROUND -20C...AND
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY FROM THE MID 20S AND L30S
INTO THE TEENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE W/NW FLOW IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH NW FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES MULTIBANDS THAT IMPACT
CNTRL NY MORE THAN ERN NY. WE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE
FORMER CLIPPER FROM THE WEEKEND DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES NEAR THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.  MEANWHILE....HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND ENSEMBLES ALL HINT AT
AN OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL SITUATION BY MID WEEK.  THE GFS BEGINS THE
PCPN TOWARDS 12Z TUE...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO PA/NY.  A SERIES OF
WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW.
UPSTREAM...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SWRN ONTARIO TO SET UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COUPLED WITH
ITS INCIPIENT FAST SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 12-HR POPS FOR 12Z TUE TO 00Z WED ARE IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST 0.25 OF QPF.  THE TREND CONTINUES FOR
TUE NIGHT.  THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE 00Z ECMWF IS FOR A
CLIPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED /DIFFERENT FROM A LONG OVER RUNNING
EVENT/.  OVERALL...WE USED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW AND WILL LOOK FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  TEMPS ON TUE AND WED ARE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
POLEWARD OF THE STATIONARY/COLD FRONT THE RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY MOVE ALONG.  WE WENT ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE REALLY
FRIGID GMOS VALUES TUE>WED WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -15C
TUE...AND PERHAPS AS COLD AS -15C TO -20C OR SO ON WED.

IN THE EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...AND PCPN NEAR NORMAL
WITH SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM WRN
NY.  THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS/-SN FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS OF 12Z WITH SOME SPOTTY LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT KPOU WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED. THE MAJORITY
OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO CIGS...HOWEVER SOME -SN HAS BRIEFLY
BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SOME -SN
WITH VSBYS 1-3SM PRIOR TO 18Z FOR KALB AND KGFL.

AFTER 18Z...THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCT -SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM KALB NORTH.  KPOU WILL HAVE MAINLY VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. AFTER 00Z...WIDESPREAD HIGH MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL BE IN AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS.

AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE.  THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN FROM THE NW AT 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
SAT...MVFR/IFR...-SN LIKELY.
SUN...MVFR/VFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...
BERKSHIRES...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...AND THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY
HAS BEEN CANCELED.  RADAR ESTIMATES AND GROUND TRUTH SHOW 1-2 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE HSA OVER THE LAST 24-36
HOURS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT FELL IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK REGION WHERE
MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET OCCURRED.  THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME
IS FOR UTICA ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.  SOME NOTABLE WITHIN BANK RISES
RANGING FROM ONE TO FOUR FEET OCCURRED ALONG MAIN STEM RIVER POINTS
ACROSS THE HSA.

RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN
A CLIPPER LOW AND ITS POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCES PERIODS OF
SNOW INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
MAIN PTYPE SNOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  NO NEW HYDRO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-
     033-042-043.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

NEAR TERM...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

NYZ032-033-042-043-VTZ013>015-081200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1020 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...
NORTHERN WARREN...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STORM MAY BRING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE
AS WELL AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET OR BY TELEPHONE.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
081200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
1020 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
THE CAPITAL REGION...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...THE TACONICS...
NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STORM MAY BRING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.