River Flood Warning 47, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AS OF 415 PM EST. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN PA...SHALLOW COLD POOL HAS OOZED SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES WITHIN ELEVATIONS BETWEEN
500 AND 1500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SE PORTION OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THROUGH 00Z/SUN...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED
SHALLOW COLD POOL TO GRADUALLY ERODE A BIT...ALLOWING P-TYPE TO
BECOME PLAIN RAIN AGAIN IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z/SUN. IN THE
MEANTIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY...WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR
ICING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE HELDERBERGS/WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM SW...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD ERODE THE COLD LAYER...ESP FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...ICING HAS THUS FAR BEEN
RESERVED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
COLDER SUBFREEZING AIR TO CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THESE
REGIONS...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL ICING.

AS FOR PRECIP INTENSITY...A LULL WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE ANOTHER BAND...SOME
CONTAINING ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ALSO SWINGS BACK
NORTHEAST. EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP THROUGH 00Z/SUN...IN THIS
BANDED FORM.

AFTER 00Z/SUN...A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE...AS
MID LEVELS COOL WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL MAINLY
OCCUR TOWARD...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY
FALL HEAVILY ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...WHERE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 3-6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER S/E...MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY
AVERAGE UNDER AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN MORNING
ACROSS N/W AREAS.

OTHER BIG STORY FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES
COMBINE WITH DEEPENING UNIDIRECTIONAL ALIGNMENT OF WINDS...AND COLD
ADVECTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
REGION...FOR EXPECTED GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE
SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 50-55 MPH. DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...DOWNED TREES MAY BE
COMMON...DESPITE WIND GUSTS REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUN...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUN...WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NW AREAS...AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE S/W ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5000 FT SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SNOWBANDS. IN
ADDITION...CLIMATOLOGY ALSO FAVORS DIURNAL MIN FOR ORGANIZED
SNOWBAND DEVELOPMENT...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES USUALLY
ENTRAIN DRY AIR...CREATING MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO LE SNOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAXES TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY NEAR 40 IN VALLEY REGIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

SUN NT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH MAY LIMIT
POTENTIAL FREE FALL OF TEMPS. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MINS WARMER
THAN MOST MOS INDICATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES BUT NOT AS INTENSE WITH A COUPLE OF
STORMS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. START OUT DRY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL OVER REGION.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA WEDNESDAY. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE/TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WHICH RESULTS IN A SPREAD OF SYSTEM TIMING AND STRENGTH.
RIDGING AT SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENTS. HOW THEY
INTERACT OR DO NOT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 0.50
INCH OF QPF IN 24 HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH GREATER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOLLOWED HPC LEAD HANDLING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z/SUN.
A LINE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
02Z/SUN...WITH BEST CHC FOR LIGHTNING AT KPOU AND KALB. SHOWERS WILL
THEN BRIEFLY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/SUN...BEFORE ONE FINAL BAND
MOVES ACROSS WITH COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SW TO W...AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH...ESP AT
KALB. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

AS FOR P-TYPE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 02Z/SUN...THEN SHOWERS OF
RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 04Z/SUN.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/SUN...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THEREAFTER. ANY HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUN AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.
SUN...WIND. VFR-MVFR...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MON/TUE/WED...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

HAVE HAD WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...REFER TO PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT. THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
THE BERKSHIRES. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. OUTSIDE
THE ADIRONDACKS...MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE....WITH HEADWATERS OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND
LARGER STEM RIVERS SUNDAY.

REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERIES /AHPS/ PAGES ON
THE WEB FOR DETAILS AND UPDATES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-
     058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047-048-050-051-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

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