Flood Watch 13, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WGUS61 KALY 261947
FFAALY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

NYZ084-270200-
/O.EXB.KALY.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-080929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...
CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH
347 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
  WILL BE A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL
  PICK UP IN INTENSITY SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM KYLE IS
  TAPPED. THE RAIN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

FOR RIVER FORECASTS REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES WEB PAGE.

$$

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013>015-
270200-
/O.EXT.KALY.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-080929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...
ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...BENNINGTON...
JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...
BELLOWS FALLS
347 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LITCHFIELD. IN
  WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE. IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
  YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...GREENE...RENSSELAER...
  SCHENECTADY...ULSTER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN AND SARATOGA. IN
  SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
  RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
  LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL PICK UP IN
  INTENSITY SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM KYLE IS TAPPED. THE
  RAIN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
  HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
  SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES
  POSSIBLE. TWO TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE
  VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

FOR RIVER FORECASTS REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES WEB PAGE.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KALY 270026
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013>015-
271000-
/O.CON.KALY.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-080929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...
ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...
NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
826 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN 
  LITCHFIELD AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE. IN EAST CENTRAL NEW 
  YORK...EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN COLUMBIA...EASTERN DUTCHESS...
  EASTERN GREENE...EASTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN SCHENECTADY...
  EASTERN ULSTER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...SOUTHERN 
  WASHINGTON...WESTERN ALBANY...WESTERN COLUMBIA...WESTERN 
  DUTCHESS...WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN RENSSELAER...WESTERN 
  SCHENECTADY AND WESTERN ULSTER. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  BENNINGTON...EASTERN WINDHAM AND WESTERN WINDHAM.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF 
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY 
  RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A 
  LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL PICK UP 
  WITH INTENSITY SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM KYLE IS 
  TAPPED. THE RAIN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 
  CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...
  LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. TWO TO THREE INCHES IS 
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. 

* WITH FALL FOLIAGE UNDERWAY...AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE FROM
  FALLEN LEAVES POSSIBLY BLOCKING STORM DRAINS RESULTING IN
  ROADWAY FLOODING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

FOR RIVER FORECASTS REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES WEB PAGE.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000 
WGUS61 KALY 270819
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013>015-
272100-
/O.CON.KALY.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-080929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...
ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...
NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
419 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LITCHFIELD. IN
  WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE. IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
  YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...GREENE...RENSSELAER...
  SCHENECTADY...ULSTER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...AND
  SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND
  WINDHAM.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
  RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY. A LULL IN THE
  HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
  HOWEVER...RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS
  TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM KYLE IS TAPPED. THE RAIN WILL FINALLY
  BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
  THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
  WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

* AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE FROM FALLEN LEAVES POSSIBLY
  BLOCKING STORM DRAINS RESULTING IN ROADWAY FLOODING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

FOR RIVER FORECASTS REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES WEB PAGE.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KALY 271854
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008


CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066-084-VTZ013>015-
272000-
/O.CAN.KALY.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-080929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...
ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...
NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
254 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TRACKING
MAINLY EAST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
DRYING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LIGHT RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BERKS...AND NW CT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNW...AND SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM...AND AREAS TO
THE N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH SOME BANDING AND ASSOC ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE RAIN WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL
MORNING. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRI LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SINCE A SOMEWHAT SHARP GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPECTED
AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY MAY RECEIVE
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. A FAIRLY STATIONARY COASTAL FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL THROUGH SAT...AS WELL AS ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS/TACONICS/SRN GREENS/BERKSHIRES. OVERALL QPF
MAY BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY WITH A SHADOWING EFFECT DUE TO EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FRI
MORNING...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL.

IN TERMS OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THE DETAILS OF WHEN THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NAM IS A GENERAL OUTLIER AND HAS SHOWN
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. SO WILL BASE FORECAST ON A COMBO OF
GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FROM THE
12Z GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS IS DISPLACED. GENERALLY 2.00-3.50
INCHES FORECAST THROUGH SAT. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE FRI MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A 1-2 INCH QPF
BULLSEYE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA SAT MORNING WHEN FGEN IS
WEAKER. TROPICAL SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF FROM THE GFS AND THUS WILL USE A
BLEND FOR QPF WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IN UPSLOPE AREAS. PLEASE SEE
HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MREF PLUMES FOR ALB SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND
WITH ISLIP AROUND 2-3.5 INCHES. THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE SREF
PLUMES...WHICH IS EXPECTED SINCE THE MEMBERS ARE NAM BASED. SOME
PARAMETERS FROM THE GEFS STILL POINT TOWARDS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. PWATS INCREASE TO +2 TO +3 SD FRI
INTO SAT. ALSO...850 MB NEGATIVE EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5
SD SHOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH 3
TO 4 SD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRI THEN WEAKENING TO 2 TO 3 SD
FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGER EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES COINCIDE WITH WHEN
THE SIG FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MAINLY ON FRI. THE
HIGHEST PROB OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF QPF IS ACROSS OUR FAR SE
ZONES...DUTCHESS/COLUMBIA/BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD.

THE STRONG LOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL SLOW
ITS PROGRESS EVEN MORE AND START TO FILL BY LATE SAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...BUT STEADY/OCCASIONAL RAINFALL
SHOULD COME TO AN END SAT NIGHT.

THE TROPICAL FEATURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS A RATHER
COMPACT SYSTEM...AND MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DEFINITIVELY SHIFTED ITS
TRACK EASTWARD TO A LINE EVEN EAST OF CAPE COD. SINCE THIS WILL BE A
COMPACT SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR REGION.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW MOVING
ONSHORE IN NORTH CAROLINA AND SLOWLY RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED IN TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW ESPECIALLY IN BENNINGTON AND BERKSHIRE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...WHERE WINDS COULD
GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ON FRI.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY HELD DOWN DURING THE DAY BUT ABOVE AVERAGE
AT NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WENT WITH MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE...MOS FOR WINDS.  BY MONDAY MORNING...
COASTAL STORM HAS MOVED ON AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  THUS...WE BEGIN
WITH NO MORE THAN SLGT CHC.  COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM WEST ON MON
WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE GETS TAKEN AWAY
BY THE DEPARTING LOW.  THUS...SLGT CHC REMAINS THRU THU UNTIL
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HANG TOUGH THOUGH...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
BUT...BY THU THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND THE NEW LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING THE FIRST REASONABLE CHC OF PRECIP.  THE HPC TEMPS STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO MEX VALUES.  HOWEVER... MEX HIGHS ARE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WED AND THU...PROBABLY OWING TO IS FACTORING IN TOO MUCH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE END WEEK LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS WESTERN ZONES TO ABOUT THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...
OTHERWISE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z...WHILE AT KPOU...DESPITE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN...CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN VFR...AS DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR PERSISTS
BETWEEN 1000 FT AGL AND 5000 FT AGL.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TOWARD...AND ESP AFTER 12Z/FRI FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN IFR THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING E FLOW OFF TACONICS...KALB
MAY BE TOUGH TO DROP INTO IFR UNTIL LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DIMINISH
LATER TODAY.

AS FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS ALREADY REACHED KPOU...THE RAIN SHOULD THEN
REACH KALB BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI...AND KGFL AFTER 12Z. THE RAIN SHOULD
START OUT LIGHT...THEN BECOME MODERATE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KALB.

WINDS WILL BECOME E TO NE...AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY 12Z/FRI.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTINESS...ESP WHEN THE RAIN FIRST
COMMENCES THIS MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT.
WINDS MAY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL FROM THE E AT 30-40
KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. -RA/RA.
SUN...MVFR/VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
MON NGT-TUE...VFR...NO WX.  GFL FOG???

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SOAKING RAINFALL AND CLOUDY/DAMP CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 50 TO 70 PERCENT NORTH...AND 70 TO 85 PERCENT
SOUTH DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY E-NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. THIS LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR DETAILS.

BIG PICTURE IS MODELS BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO AREA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF AMOUNTS. FIRST BATCH OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR FOR OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.

EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM FROM THE LEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH WITH AROUND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND 3 TO 4 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

RAINFALL THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH AN
ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED. SOME URBAN FLOOD ISSUES COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT DURATION. ALSO...THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013>015-261100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
411 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY STARTING LATE TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A PERSISTENT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS 2 TO
3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. THE
RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR OR NUISANCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-082>084-261100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-NORTHERN FULTON-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
411 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.