Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DROP SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE PRIMARY FCST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK/FLAT MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSCD SFC TROUGH. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PER SPC WOULD SUGGEST MOST
FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS EXISTS S OF A FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-MELFA
LINE...BASICALLY S OF THE TROUGH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S. STILL...STRONGER LLVL WRLY COMPONENT TODAY AND ASSCD
DOWNSLOPE DRYING IS HAVING AN EFFECT IN LIMITING BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE LOWER CAPES AND WEAKER LLVL
CONVERGENCE. THIS IS TRUE EVEN S OF THE TROUGH...AS LOWER 90S/LOWER
60S T/TD SFC PROFILE YIELDS CAPES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG TOPS...WHILE
LLVL MSTR/THETA-E CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK.

WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) OVER OUR SRN VA/NERN NC AREAS...
CONSISTENT WITH SPCS SLIGHT RISK REGION...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
SCATTERED COVERAGE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE PROGS.
ELSEWHERE TO THE N...EVEN WEAKER LLVL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED...WHILE
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BELOW 60F ARE RESTRICTING MUCAPES TO ABOUT
1000-1500 J/KG TOPS. OVER THESE REGIONS ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF AT ALL LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM N TO S.
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT (ISOLATED) CHC OVER NERN NC THROUGH THE
EARLY AM HOURS...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-10F LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION ON
MONDAY. BY THE AFTN...THE WEAK HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND COOLEST (COMFORTABLE)
TEMPS ALONG THE COATS. EVEN INLAND...BROAD SCALE ONSHORE (NE) FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER/DRIER DAY THAN WEVE SEEN RECENTLY. DRY
AIRMASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TO 55-60 FOR MOST AREAS.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS ON
TUE WITH THE DEEPENING SW FLOW AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT (OR ANY OTHER TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION) REMAINS
WELL N OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WITH PREVIOUS FCST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TUE THRU THU HAVE WEAK SHORT WAVES IN STRONG MID TO UPR LVL
FLOW...AS UPR LVL RIDGE SLOLY BLDS OVER THE MID ATLC. HAVE A CHC PCP
THRU THIS PD WITH BEST CHC WED AND WED NIGHT...AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.
WITH RAPID FLOW AND WEAK WAVES...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF THE PRECIP. TEMPS MOSTLY SEASONAL THRU THE PD...WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TUE THRU THU AS RIDGE BLDS. TEMPS START OUT IN THE
L-M80S...EXCEPT FOR U70S NEAR THE COAST. BY THU EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
M-U80S INLAND AND NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMP
THU THRU SAT AS UPR LVL RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC. LTL
IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...AND HAVE
KEPT SCHC TO CHC PRECIP FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH SCT LOW AND MID CLDS THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCT CU
DVLPNG. RADAR SHOWS SCTD ACTIVITY SW VA ALNG VA/NC BORDER AND NRN
VA... EXPECT SCTD DVLPMNT CENTRAL VA BY MID AFTN. TIMING UNCERTAIN SO
HAVE HANDLED WITH CB IN RIC/ORF/PHF. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT HAVE ECG AND SBY MVFR WITH BR BURNING OFF RAPIDLY WITH
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT DAY FOR BOATING TODAY...WITH WINDS ON THE BAY/COAST GENLY AOB
10 KTS. EXCEPTIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO LAND...WHERE GUSTINESS OVER
LAND IS LIKELY EXTENDING A MILE OR 2 OFFSHORE.

CDFNT CROSSES WATERS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REALTIVELY WEAK
SURGE. HAVE KPET WINDS IN THE 15KT RANGE BEHIND THE FNT...ALTHO A
FEW GUSTS AOA 20KT POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AND OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN BY LATE MORNING..AS
WEAK HIGH APPROACHES...AND GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNSET.

NEXT THREAT FOR SCAS COMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT CDFNT. THIS FNT WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THURSDAY...TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NE AND E.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...WRS
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...WRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>063-065>073-079>098-100-021645-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...ALONG
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-VAZ064-074>078-099-021645-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
CAROLINE-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
ACCOMACK-
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE
MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-021645-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HURLEY

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