Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE SEVERE. A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SVR WATCH 327 IN EFFECT THRU 0Z.

RADAR SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF TSRA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS SRN VA. ALONG
WITH THE RAPID MOTION STORMS TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART HAVE FEATURED
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE WITH
POSSIBLE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HENCE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
GOOD CAPE PARTICULARLY OVER SE VA AND NE NC...SPC HAS ISSUED WW #327
UNTIL 00Z. WITH MORE STABLE AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN...MDLS INDICATE
VORT AND SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND OUT TO SEA
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND STABILIZING. THIS DOES NOT ENTIRELY TAKE US OUT
OF THE WOODS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS GFS/NAM IS PERSISTENT
WITH SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING ACROSS. RIGHT NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HOWEVER COULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS POPPING UP BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN THIRD
IOF THE CWA...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AT ANY RATE THIS APPEARS TO BE
SORT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS THAT
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....CENTERED
AROUND A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC/SE OF HUDSON BAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE TO BE GREATLY LIMITED WITH EACH
TROUGH...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR POSSIBLE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND NAM BOTH POINTING TOWARDS
WK TROF DEVELOPMENT DIVING TO THE SE FROM THE OH VLY.
HOWEVER...PWATS NEVER GET AOA 1 INCH THURSDAY/THU NGT...SO WHILE
POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...THEY ARE STILL WITHIN
SILENT RANGE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE...NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA BY
FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT N/NW FLOW
AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WX. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS FOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPR MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE RGN FROM THE NW LTR FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
N/NW FLOW SHUD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY...GENERALLY LWR 70S...EXCEPT UPR 60S ALONG THE ERN SHORE AND
BEACHES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COOL WATER. MORE OF THE SAME
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS GENLY IN THE 70S. BY LTR SUNDAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TAKE THE HIGH OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THE RESULTANT SLY FLOW MAKING FOR A WARMER (AND MORE
HUMID) END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ON SW WNDS...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
80S MONDAY. PERSISTANT SW FLOW ALLOWS FOR WARMUP TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPR 80S POSSIBLE OVR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A LINE OF TSRA
MOVING THRU SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BRING
MVR/IFR AS STORMS AFFECT THE TAF SITES...HAVE CB IN TAFS AND WILL
MONITOR FOR TIMING. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EVE HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO N BETWN 20Z AND 00Z...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN TONIGHT . DEPENDING ON RAIN AMTS THERE COULD
BE PATCHY FOG FROM 06 TO 12Z WED. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE WED
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR ALL MARINE ZNS THRU LT THIS
EVENING. LT AFTERNOON MSAS ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW JUST OVER NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS ATTM...WITH TRAILING FRONT SNAKING WEST OF THE CHES
BAY.

TONIGHT/WED...BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR SHOULD HELP MIXING IN NW TO
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL DISGREE WRT LOW TRACK...BUT
CAN STILL SEEM TO AGREE THAT SCA WL BE ABLE TO GET TAKEN DOWN LT
TONIGHT...AS WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. WRF/SREF/RUC13
BLEND HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL IN COMPARISON TO OTHER GUIDANCE
THIS AFTN...AND HV APPLIED THIS BLEND THRU LT THIS EVENING.
SREF/GFS BLEND WAS FAVORED FROM THERE FWD. WSW FLOW AGAIN
DEVELOPS WED AFTN...LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA AT THIS POINT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS THU NGT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS AND AN
IDEAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>633-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KLL
NEAR TERM...KLL
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...MAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-062-064-074>076-211730-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ060-061-063-066>073-077-078-083-211730-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-HANOVER-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-NEW KENT-
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ650-211730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ630>633-652-654-656-658-211730-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-079>082-084>100-211730-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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