Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
438 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WTCH 286 IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM. TOR WTCH 283 EXPIRED AT 3
AM. WTCHING E-W LINE OF STRNG TSTRMS ACROSS SRN VA OUT AHEAD OF
LOW PRS THIS AM. SAID LINE OF CONVECTION PROGGED TO CONTG MOVG N
ACROSS WATCH AREA NXT FEW HRS. ADNTL TSTRMS PROGGED TO DVLP IN WRM
SCTR UNTAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS NC NXT FEW HRS AS WELL WHILE
AIRMASS NW OF RIC HAS BEEN WORKED OVR WITH MDT TO HVY RAIN PAST
FEW HRS. ACTIVITY XPCTD TO DMNSH THIS AFTRN BEHIND TRAILING
CDFRNT. PRTL SUNSHINE OVR WRN CNTYS AFTR 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LO PRES PASSES ACRS FAR NRN AREAS OF FA FRI MRNG...THEN OFF
SRN NJ CST IN THE AFTN. TRAILING CDFNT TO REACH SE VA/NE NC
ERY/MID AFTN HRS. WL HV LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE MRNG HRS
MOST PLCS...CONTG MENTION OF LCLLY HVY RA (QPF 1-3 IN...ESP VA/MD
CTYS IN FA). LINGERING/SCTD CNVTN PSBL W/ CDFNTL PASSAGE SE VA/NE NC
DURG THE AFTN (PTNTLLY STRNG/SVR?). TOUGH CALL ON DRYING/CLRG FRI
NGT...AS A 2ND/WKR SYS DIVES THROUGH RGN FM THE NW. HV KEPT
P/MCLDY INTO SAT MRNG W/ AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS (THOUGH MOD/HVY RA
THREAT WL BE OVR BY THAT TM). BY THAT 2ND SYS SAT AFTN/NGT...MR
DEFINITIVE PD OF DRYING XPCTD.

HI TEMPS FRI FM THE UPR 60S (LWR MD ERN SHR) TO MID/UPR 70S (SRN
VA/NE NC)...LOWS FRI NGT IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...THEN 60S TO LWR 70S
XPCTD SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WL
LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING WITH -RW INTO MONDAY. AMS
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
EXPECT PROLOGED WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER MONDAY BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHCS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND ISLTD IFR CONDS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THRU THIS MORNG DUE
TO LO PRES AND ASSOC COLD FRNT MOVNG ACRS REGION. CONDS SHUD
IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTN INTO SAT MORNG.
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN LWR CIGS AND
VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN AFTN THRU MON AS NEXT LO PRES AREA AND
FRNTL SYSTEM AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES THRU THIS AFTN FOR CHES BAY/CURR SND
AND THRU LATE TNGT FOR CSTL WTRS...DUE TO STRNG SSW WNDS WITH
STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE BREEZY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES (SOUTHERLY) AND WITH ITS PASSAGE (NORTHWESTERLY). LO
PRES WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SAT AND WEAK HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE
W AND OVR THE AREA THRU SUN MORNG.

SCA CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUN INTO TUE MORNG...AS A STRNG LO
PRES AREA AND ASSOC FRNT PUSH ACRS THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAM/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...KLL
AVIATION...CY/TMG
MARINE...TMG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

VAZ078-084>086-090-091-091145-
GLOUCESTER VA-JAMES CITY VA-LANCASTER VA-MATHEWS VA-MIDDLESEX VA-YORK
VA-
715 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PENINSULA...

AT 715 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ARK AT 720 AM EDT...PINERO AT 725
AM EDT...DUTTON AT 730 AM EDT...SOLES AT 735 AM EDT...AMBURG AT 740
AM EDT...DELTAVILLE AT 745 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM.

RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

MDZ023>025-VAZ099-091215-
ACCOMACK VA-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-SOMERSET MD-
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOMERSET AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES...

AT 721 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF POCOMOKE CITY TO 25
MILES SOUTHWEST OF POCOMOKE CITY...OR FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PRINCESS ANNE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF CRISFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  POCOMOKE CITY AND OAK HALL AROUND 730 AM EDT...
  CHINCOTEAGUE AROUND 750 AM EDT...
  OCEAN CITY AROUND 810 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

ALB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

VAZ063-066>068-070>073-079>084-087>090-092-091230-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE
VA-GLOUCESTER VA-GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-JAMES CITY
VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-LUNENBURG VA-NEW KENT
VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
747 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHCENTRAL
VIRGINIA...

AT 745 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HIGHLAND SPRINGS TO 16 MILES WEST OF
MCKENNEY...OR FROM HIGHLAND SPRINGS TO 8 MILES EAST OF KENBRIDGE...
MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FIVE FORKS AROUND 755 AM EDT...
  WESTWOOD AROUND 800 AM EDT...
  ROXBURY AROUND 805 AM EDT...
  BIRCHETT ESTATE AROUND 810 AM EDT...
  COHOKE AROUND 815 AM EDT...
  TEMPLETON AROUND 820 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

GINGRICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
810 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

VAZ099-100-091315-
ACCOMACK VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-
810 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY...

AT 810 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF EXMORE TO 30 MILES WEST OF EXMORE...OR
FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF EXMORE TO MATHEWS...MOVING EAST AT 41 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EXMORE AROUND 850 AM EDT...
  CHINCOTEAGUE AROUND 855 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

ALB

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