Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RTHR INTERESTING WX SCENARIO OCCURRING ACROSS FA ATTM. OUTFLOW
BNDRY FROM LAST NITES STORMS SETTLED ACROSS SRN VA THIS AM. THIS
BNDRY HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR PULSE TYPE SVR STORMS PAST FEW HRS.
XPCT THIS TREND TO CONT NXT FEW HRS AS ADDNTL OUTFLOW BNDRYS MERGE
& INITIATE TSTRMS (SEEING ANTHR OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVG N FROM TSTRM IN
BERTIE CNTY NC).

OTW...SUBSIDENCE FROM LAST NITES STORMS COVER MOST OF THE NRN HALF
OF FA WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER OTHR THAN CI BLOWOFF. AFTR
COORD WITH SPC...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SVR TSTRM WATCH ERLY
THIS AFTRN DUE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE. WILL BE MONITORING TSTRM DVLPMNT
TO THE N & W NXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT. THUS...ANTHR WATCH
BOX MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY DVPMNT LATER THIS AFTRN.

FRNT PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS FA TONITE. AIR DRIES OUT BEHIND
FROPA ENDING CHC FOR PCPN. THUS...WILL CONT CHC POPS THIS EVE FOR
WRN HALF OF FA...ENDG POPS BY MIDNITE. FRNTL MOVMNT WILL BE SLOW
ENUF TO CONT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN AND ERN SCTNS THRU SUNRISE. LOWS
FROM M60S-M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BNDRY STALLS ACROSS ERN NC SUN...WITH ANY SPRT FOR CONVECTION
REMAINING S OF ALBEMARLE SND. H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO RGN SUN RESULTING
IN A DRY DAY. H85 TMPS SPRTS MAX READINGS FROM THE U80S-L90S.

WEAK IMPULSE PROGGED TO DVLP ALONG STALLED BNDRY ACROSS ERN NC MONDAY.
MODELS DISAGREE WRT HOW FAR N ANY SGNFCNT MSTR GETS MON. GFS FRTHR
N (UP TO NC/VA BRDR) WHILE NAM KEEPS MSTR IVOF ALBEMARLE SND. DECIDED
TO SPLIT DIFFERENCE AND ADD SLGHT CHC AFTRN POPS TO NE NC ZONES. OTW...
ANTHR TYPICAL ERLY AUGUST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM U80S-L90S. BERMUDA RIDGE
HOLDS TIGHT TUE. H85 TMPS AOA 20C PUTS READINGS INTO THE M90S W OF CHES
BAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DP TMPS ARND 70 RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
BTWN 100-105.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RDG BUILDING STRONGLY EWD TWD/INTO MID-ATL RGN BY TUE-MID NEXT WK
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE WK. AS RIDGE BUILDS
LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EXCESSIVE HEAT (ESP INLAND) AND GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. AS STATED YESTERDAY...TRENDS ON THE THE MEX
MAX TEMP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM ON DAYS 4-5 (ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST). MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP 00Z/12Z RUNS
AND ONCE AGAIN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO WARM AND LOOKS TO BE
COMING FROM THE VERY HIGH END CATEGORY OF ALL THE 20 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. WILL CONTINUE TO STICK TO NEAR THE AVG MEAN MAX TEMPS FOR
TUE/WED. INTERESTING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF 1000-850MB THICKNESS SCHEMES
ARE ALSO NOT AS WARM AS PREDICTED FROM 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY. CONTINUE
TO THINK HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WILL KEEP TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST TUE AND WED...BUT
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S (ESP SW 1/3RD CWA) WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND.

RIDGE PUSHES SOUTHWARD LATE WK BRINGING AND END TO THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT AND AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENG...BRINGING SCT
PRECIP/TSTMS TO AREA. CB/VCTS MENTIONED FOR TERMINALS THRU EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW-NE BEHIND FRONTAL BNDRY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR SUN.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACRS THE TERMINALS SUN THRU MIDWEEK
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE RGN. ONLY CAVEAT COMES WITH THE CHC
FOR SCT IFR DURING EARLY MORNINGS AND IN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
RGN INTO TNGT FROM THE NW. AS THIS HAPPENS...S WINDS WL VEER TO THE
SW THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE BECOMING N/NW BY LTR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WTRS.

LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRAS TO DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF BNDRY. NAM12 SHOWING
STRONGER WINDS AT H92 (20-25KTS) FOR A SHORT TIME N/S OVER THE BAY
FROM 02-05Z SUN. THINKING THIS IS TOO SHORT LIVED FOR AN SCA AND MAY
JUST USE A MWS OR SMW AS LOW LVL COLD AIR SURGE PUSHES THROUGH.
CONTINUE TO THINK SUST WINDS AOB 15 KT RANGE WILL WORK...ASIDE FROM
A LIMITED WINDOW OF GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT RANGE.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE ON SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THRU EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. SSW FLWO DVLPS EARLY TO MID
WK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...CCW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK        36.72N 76.59W
08/02/2008  M0.75 INCH       CITY OF SUFFOLK    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUST SOUTH OF MAIN HAIL CORE.

&&

BJACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK   36.73N 76.60W
08/02/2008                   CITY OF SUFFOLK    VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK ALONG HWY 58
            FROM MURPHYS MILL RD TO GODWIN BLVD.

&&

BJACKSON

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