Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED EARLIER FOR SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8PM FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT CSTL WTRS. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONCERNS STRG
WINDS/HAIL. VERY STRG INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ENOUGH DESPITE ONLY
MODEST DEEP SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGN) VALUES THUS FAR.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR ERLY/MID AFTN APPEARS GREATEST FOR MD ERN SHORE
AND INTO CNTRL/SOUTH CNTRL VA...GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING SE VA/NC
NC BY LATER AFTN/EVENG. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NW OF A
FVX TO RIC TO SBY LINE...OTHERWISE KEPT SCTD (40-50%) WORDING.

SCTD TSTMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENG BUT SVR THREAT BECOMES LESS
LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 9PM...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN 1/2 OF
CWA AS MAIN LOW LVL JET SEGMENT SLIDES OFFSHORE...AND INSTABILITY
WEAKENS W/ LOSS DAYTIME HTG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
N/S TIMING OF PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN QUESTION ON MONDAY.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WHERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP TWRDS
THE AFTN HRS. THINK A GOOD BULK OF THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO NC ZONES
AND SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC FURTHER NORTH WITH UNCERTAINTY
OF WHERE BOUNDARY WILL LIE.

AGAIN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IN QUESTION ON TUE AS MODELS DIFFER IN
OUTCOME AND FOR NOW HAVE STAYED WITH CONTINUITY...WENT SLGHT CHC NRN
HALF AND 30% POP FOR AFTN TSTMS WITH TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS STILL KEEPING UPR TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER US.
ALSO A DIFFICULT FCST IN TIMING S/WS MVG AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL. CONTINUED TREND OF HIGHER POPS
DURING DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AFTN/EVNG TIME PERIODS AND LITTLE TO NO
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. STILL KEPT RATHER MODEST
POPS AS WELL...NOTHING ABOVE LOW END CHANCE FOR ANY PARTICULAR DAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS (WHICH HAS PRACTICALLY NO POPS FOR US)...AND IF CONFIDENCE
IN THE FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WED IS INCREASED IN
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS...THIS MAY BE A PERIOD THAT MAY NEED A BOOST
IN POPS. BNDRY APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE.

WITH THE DRIER SOLN...THE GFS PUTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S WED
AFTN...BUT DISCOUNTED THIS FOR NOW AND WENT LWR 90S WHICH FITS WITH
OTHER (WETTER) SOLNS. WITH GOOD CU COVERAGE MOST OTHER AFTNS...WENT
CLOSE TO (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) AVERAGE FOR HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SVR TSTM WATCH EFFECTIVE FOR REGION TIL 8 PM. STRONG TSTMS
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PIEDMONT AREA AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT RIC
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT
BUT LIKELY STALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY COULD GO
LATE INTO EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR ON MON
AS FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION LIKELY
FOR SE VA AND NE NC ON MONDAY. WINDS TURNING WNW TO NE BEHIND
FRONTAL BNDRY AND REMAINING MOSTLY S-SW AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CRNT WND GUSTS AOA 15 KT / TROF W OF MARINE AREA THIS AM AND
CD FRNT APPRCHG FROM W THIS AFTRN...DECIDED TO RAISE SCA FOR CHES
BAY FROM LATE AM TO ERLY EVE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT (WRF ALSO SUGGESTS
THIS). THNK 15-20 KTS SHUD SUFFICE FOR CSTL WTRS. OTW...WND SPEEDS
XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FRNTL
MEANDERS ACROSS RGN. DRCTNS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE BNDRY
SLOWS AND STALLS NEAR AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ANZ633-MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-281715-
CURRITUCK SOUND-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
MARYLAND BEACHES-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
114 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 761 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CURRITUCK SOUND...THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANZ650-652-654-656-658-281715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
114 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANZ630>632-281715-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
114 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 761 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BROWN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CENTRAL PLAINS      37.82N 78.34W
07/27/2008                   FLUVANNA           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG LONG ACRE RD.

&&

BJACKSON