Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...PUSHING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED ZFPAKQ AND HWOAKQ TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH 108
UNTIL NOON EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

PRVS DISCUSSION BELOW...

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NC...WITH AN ASSD WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA...AND CENTRAL DE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. FARTHER WEST...AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO.

CURRENTLY HAVE AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NE PIEDMONT ATTM
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INTRODUCED WORDING IN ZNS FOR
ERY THIS MORNING...AS FOG WL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IN-SITU WEDGE IS DISPLACED AS LOW RIDES NORTHEASTWARD TDA.

OTW...FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS SEVERE WX THREAT AND
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. WL TRY TO BE BRIEF GIVEN
IMPENDING THREAT.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TDA. H7 TROF WL PUSH N AND E INTO THE OH VLY...TILTING NEGATIVE AS
IT RIDES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. BIGGEST VARIABLE
IS LOCATION OF WEDGE. IF MORE WARMER AIR CAN ADVECT INTO WESTERN
ZNS...COULD HAVE A BIT MORE CONCERN FOR TSRA CHANCES FOR PIEDMONT.
FOR NOW...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OVER THIS AREA.

LLJ EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT...WITH MLCAPES GENLY
PROGGED ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG OVER SE CWA BY MID MORNING.
LLVL LIFT MECHANISMS STILL LOOK RATHER WEAK TDA...BECOMING
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST OVER THE TIDEWATER RGN.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ATTM OVER SE CWA IN THE L/M 60S...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS POINTING TOWARDS INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR AT MIDLVLS
AFTER 12Z. GIVEN STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CERTAINLY
REASONABLE TO EXPECT MIXING SOME OF THIS AIR DOWN...PRODUCING
POSSIBLE STRIGHTLINE WIND DMG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
BROKEN SQUALL LINE BY 12-15Z TDA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY
STORMS THAT ERUPT UPSTREAM THIS MORNING.

SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING...AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFF TO THE EASTERN SHORE LATER THIS MORNING/ERY THIS AFTN.

LLVL FLOW QUICKLY GOES DOWNSLOPE BY MID TO LATE AFTN...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING INTO LT AFTERNOON (CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTRN CWA...BUT GENLY MCLDY TDA).

ADDITIONAL QPF TDA RUNS FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO AROUND ONE INCH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WL
LKLY HV SOME HIGHER AMTS ONCE AGIN IN AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT
CROP UP LTR THIS MORNING.

NEXT CONCERN IS WIND...AS SFC LOW ACCELERATES INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATL...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE RGN FROM THE S. AS THE MIDLVL
TROF RIDES INTO THE OH VLY...COOL AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE
CWA...WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS YIELDING SFC WND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING.

SKIES CLEAR LATER SAT NGT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE KEPT
LOW CHC POPS IN MD SAT EVENG FOR ANY POSSIBLE LIGHT WRAP ARND
MSTR. TEMPS TURN SHARPLY COLDER TWDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED MIN T
UPWARDS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE WELL MIXED BL. STILL...LOOKING
CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SE (U20S IN NW PIEDMONT AND
IVOF KSBY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BENIGN WX RETURNS TO THE MID-ATL REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ENSURE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. HIGHS GENLY UPR 40S/LWR 50S (SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN CWA INTO NE NC).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK S/W PASSES THROUGH MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN BUT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LLVLS TOO DRY TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE
PCPN ATTM...AND LEFT FORECAST DRY AS A RESULT. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY
SHOULD YIELD A P/M CLDY DAY OVER EASTERN SXNS. TEMPS PUSH INTO THE
M/U 50S...BUT COOLER HIGHS IN THE U40S/N50 OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTERWARDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER WEAK S/W PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON WED. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
FCST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS ON
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS TEMPS
GO...GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT NOT TOO
EXTREME WITH SOME P-MCLDY CONDS EXPECTED...STAYING NEAR CLIMO
AVERAGES THROUGH THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WRM FRNT CONTS NW OF MOST TAF SITES AT 12Z WITH S-SW WNDS VARYING
CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR. XCPTN BEING RIC WHERE WNDS THERE
REMAIN LGT N WITH LIFR CIGS AND OCNL R-. CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONT TO
VARY THRU 15Z AS PERIODIC SHWRS CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDED TSRA FOR SERN CNTYS CRNTLY IN TORNADO WATCH THRU 17Z.

LOW MOVES N OF RGN THIS AFTRN. WND XPCTD TO RPDLY INCRS AFTR 18Z
SO INCREASED WIND GUST PTNTL TO NR 40 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WND ADVSRY. GUSTY WNDS CONT THRU SAT EVE
B4 DMNSHG AFTR 06Z.

HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS BUILD IN LATE SAT NGHT AND LAST THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7AM UPDATE REFLECTS TORNADO WATCH FROM SRN CHES BAY AND ADJACENT
CSTL WTRS ON S THRU 17Z. GALE WRNG (SYNOPTIC) WNDS BEGIN AFTR 18Z
WITH STRNGST WNDS XPCTD AFTR 00Z.

FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AS LTST DATA CONTS TO SPRT WND GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS TONITE AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NE OF RGN. WNDS XPCTD TO SLOWLY
DMNSH TO BELOW GALE FORCE AFTR MIDNIGHT...SO XPCT GALES WILL BE
REPLACED WITH SCAS THEN AS SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO DMNSH.

LTST MRP DATA SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES BTWN 1-2 FT BELOW NRML TONIGHT
ARND STRNGST OFFSHORE WNDS. PLAN IS TO ADD THIS TIDAL DEPARTURE WORDING
TO CWF TONITE FOR CHES BAY AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS.

WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND ONLY A FEW UPR LVL SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH OVERHEAD WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15-20KTS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JYM/MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR

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