Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST CONDITIONS SHOW SPLIT PRECIP PATTERN AFFECTING MOST OF THE
AKQ CWA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WRN PA SOUTHWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TWO MAIN VORTS ARE PRESENT...ONE
ACRS WV/PA KEEPING NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS NRN VA...AND BASED ON
TRENDS THESE LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING
DORCHESTER/WICOMICO/OXB LATER THIS EVENING. FARTHER SW...A
SECONDARY WEAKER VORT MAX HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SCTD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND COMBINED W/ SOME LOW LVL
CONV/SEABREEZE BNDRYS MAY SEE SOME CONTD DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NC ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) OF TSTMS FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN (MOST OF VA).

OVERNIGHT...HAVE DIMINISHED RAIN CHCS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SERN SECTIONS...WHERE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC GOING AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
MID LVL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
DURING THE AM HOURS. BROAD-SCALE UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW-
MID TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WITH THE W/NW (DOWNSLOPE) LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY PSBL EXCEPTION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE AREAS ALONG BAY/SEA
BREEZE BNDRYS W OF CHES BAY...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DURING
A W/NW LLVL FLOW PATTERN. LLVL THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RATHER LOW WITH THE DRY ADVECTION...THUS FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20%.

THE MAIN STORY TUE-THU WILL BE THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WITH THE
WESTERLY (ZONAL) FLOW ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN WILL NOT
HELP THE RAINFALL SHORTAGES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY
OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC...WHERE WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN).
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THU WILL
MAKE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S ON WED AND LOW-MID 90S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH WEAK FRONT XPCTD STILL XPCTD TO ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY WL KEEP
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. DO NOT THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE
WIDESPREAD HERE AS INDICATED BY MDLS...MORE SO THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION SCATTERED VARIETY. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER WITH
TIMING/INTENSITY OF STORMS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEREAS GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVES TRIGGERING SHOWERS OFF AND ON SAT INTO
MONDAY. SORT OF BLENDED THE THOUGHTS AND INCLUDED AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MOSTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUMMER-STYLE THUNDERSTORMS. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS XPCTD TO BE IN THE U80S TO L90S AND LOWS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK TROF MOVG THRU SE VA WITH THE CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF IT AN
OFSHORE...WINDS IN HAMPTON ROADS NE NC HAVE BECOME SW SO SMOKE IS
NOT AFFECTING ECG/PHF/ORF AT THIS TIME SO ALL LOCATIONS VFR. WITH
MID UPR LVL CLDS MOVING E STARTING TO SEE SOME CU DVLP...TIMING OF
SHWRS/TSRA DIFFICULT...HAVE CB IN SBY AND RIC THIS AFTN...MAY ADD TO
OTHERS LATER. MAIN VFR CONDS THRU EVE HOURS. AS WINDS WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SMOKE INTO ORF/ECG WITH MVFR VIS ALSO MVFR
SBY FOR BR.

MORE OF THE SAME TUESDAY...WITH SCT AFTN T...AS SLOW MOVING BNDRY
FINALLY CLEARS OFFSHORE. SHOULD HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W FOR MID TO LT WK.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRESSING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO SCA WIND/SEAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS CROSSING THE BAY/CSTL WATERS WHICH CUD PROMPT MARINE
STATEMENTS/WARNINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WIND AND SEAS
SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO DOWNWIND LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTH ONE
WILDFIRE TONIGHT (SUFFOLK/CHESAPEAKE)...AND THEN INTO
CAMDEN/CURRITUCK TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/LKB
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...ALS/KLL
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...KLL
FIRE WX...LKB

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