Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1138 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...990 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NNW THROUGH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO
BE 996 MB JUST SW OF PAYA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LEAD OCCLUSION
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING ALOFT AND FALLING APART. SECOND WRAP OF OCCLUSION IS
DEVELOPING IN SE GULF TODAY AND WILL WRAP NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT.

 LOW TO SE AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA CREATING
MODERATE NE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDS HAVE BEEN
QUITE INCONSISTENT AND GUSTY OVER THE PUBLIC AREAS WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
GALE FORCE GAP FLOW WINDS OCCURRING IN FAVORED N-E CHANNELS THIS
MORNING THAT SHOULD EASE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIND VEERS
SE. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO SMCR BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

 RADAR SHOWING MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISING HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA...WET BUILD TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR FLURRIES BUT
WITH THE PRECIP VERY LIGHT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH
TODAY. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS SECOND WRAP MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE
EVENING. THINK PRECIP WILL STAY SNOW FOR PAHN-PAYA AREAS THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

 TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE DUE TO DOWN SLOPE WARMING AND EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OUT
TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT. PATTERN IS A BIT BLOCKY WITH A CLOSED
HIGH ALOFT N OF AK DRIFTING E TO THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
GULF OF AK THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH IT BEING REINFORCED
BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF FROM THE WNW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP ARE AROUND MIDWEEK...WITH
THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A DEEPER TROF OVER THE GULF DUE TO FAIRLY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...WHILE ECMWF IS FLATTER
WITH THE RIDGE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF. AT THIS
POINT...THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE ON THE
DIFFERENCES SO THEY WERE LEFT AS IS ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT. THIS
WAS COORDINATED WITH WFO PAFC AND THEY AGREED TO KEEP ANY CHANGES
MINIMAL.

EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...SHOULD HAVE A LOW TRACKING NW
ALONG THE OUTER COAST SUN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
ON THIS FEATURE...AND THE GRIDS ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE ON THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO THEY WERE LEFT AS IS FOR THE MOST PART FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. DID TWEAK WINDS DOWN SOME FOR THE PAYA
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THOUGH AS THEY LOOKED A BIT
OVERDONE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027>029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>034-043-051-052.

MM/RWT