Wind Advisory 80, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030238
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2008

AKZ028-030900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-081103T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
538 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030851
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2008

AKZ028-031000-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-081103T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1151 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKST SUN NOV 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A 980 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL BE NEAR
SITKA TONIGHT AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AT 1300 UTC LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPLEX DUAL CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE NORTHERN
LOW CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 NM WEST OF SITKA AND IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR
THE LOW REPORT 20 TO 30 KT WINDS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

A STRONGER 980 MB LOW TO THE SOUTH IS ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF CWZV
AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY 0000 UTC
MONDAY AND THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWARD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT STRONGLY TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW
INCREASING TO GALES OVER THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATE.

RAIN BANDS SPIRALING AROUND THE LOW COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
SECOND LOW NEARS EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
NEAR SEA LEVEL IN NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN SOME COOLER OUTFLOW WITH SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHWAYS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE 00Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY IN LINE WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS SHOWS A BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN OTHER MODELS.
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED BROADER AND WEAKER LOW OVER NORTHERN
GULF AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUED
WEAKENING THE BROAD LOW AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN WHICH
TIME A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENTERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL MAKE ITS JOURNEY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED
PRIMARILY TO THE INHERITED GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIODS.
A LITTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUTS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT OVER ALL SOLUTIONS KEPT REASONABLE
CONTINUITY.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS DUE TO LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST TO WEST SWELLS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...NOT TO REACHING THE ADVISORY LEVEL BUT BRIEF WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
UPPER MARGIN OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
INSIDE PASSAGES ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
LOWER MARGIN OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OUTSIDE
WATERS...INCLUDING CROSS SOUND...ON THURSDAY.

POPS WILL STAY LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A BIT COLDER AIR AROUND THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MORNING PACKAGE WENT WITH POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. POPS WILL
INCREASE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
THE SECOND LOW. WITH THIS LOW...ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF LONG TERM FORECAST RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-034-036-043-051-052.

CFD/SJA