Wind Advisory 77, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 272157
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
157 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008


AKZ018-272300-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-081027T2300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
157 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE FAR SERN CORNER OF SE
AK. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIFT NW TOWARD THE S-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES NNE ALONG IT.
MODELS WERE ALL OVER ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...AND
AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC AND LONG TERM HERE...WENT WITH 00Z
GFS/06Z NAM BLEND FOR THE LOW. THE LATE ARRIVING 06Z GFS ACTUALLY
LOOKED EVEN BETTER BUT WAS TOO LATE TO INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. A
LOW OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN PAYA AND BUOY 46082 BY LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAR NW THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
ADVANCING WAVE WILL GET. ATTM...RAIN IS OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP BAND WILL DRIFT NW TO THE
CENTRAL AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN AREA TONIGHT. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE N GULF...BUT THESE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SE AREA...AND ON S
AND E SIDE OF THE N GULF LOW. BOTH AREAS HAVE SCA LEVEL WINDS
GOING ON. THE WINDS WITH THE N GULF LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN.
MEANWHILE...WINDS OVER THE FAR SERN AREA WILL REMAIN AND MAY EVEN
PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...WINDS THERE HAVE DROPPED OFF WELL BELOW ADVY LEVELS...SO
THE WIND ADVYS FOR THE FAR SERN AREA HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. ADVY
LEVEL WINDS COULD RETURN THERE LATE TONIGHT IF THE 06Z GFS IS
RIGHT ON LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...MAJORITY OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TO ABOUT MID WEEK AND STILL BETTER THAN NORMALLY SEEN INTO
THE WEEKEND. USED GFS MAINLY TO ADJUST TO ABOUT ABOUT THURSDAY IN
THE GRIDS AND THEN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME.

WAVE ON THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD DRIFT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL TRAIL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GULF A SYSTEM. SO IT LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
THEN TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS TO
STALL OUT THERE BUT ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGESTING A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND DRIFT NORTH FROM ABOUT 35-40 NORTH WED TO SOUTH OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON... TO SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS MAINTAINS ITSELF THE WEEKEND COULD
BE WET AGAIN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-022-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK