Wind Advisory 67, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030746
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

AKZ027-031100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T1100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN
EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ021>026-028-029-031100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T1100Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ020-031100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0067.081003T0800Z-081003T1100Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-031100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.081003T0800Z-081003T1100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD WINDY CONDITION ACROSS THE HAINES
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-031600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.081003T1100Z-081003T2300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1146 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKDT
FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKDT FRIDAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SKAGWAY AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 031042
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

AKZ023-024-026>029-031145-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T1100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ021-022-025-031400-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T1400Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ020-031400-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-081003T1400Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-031845-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T2000Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD WINDY CONDITION ACROSS THE HAINES
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-031845-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.081003T1100Z-081003T2300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
242 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SKAGWAY AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 031333
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
533 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

AKZ021-022-025-031445-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T1400Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU
533 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ020-031445-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-081003T1400Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
533 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ019-032000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T2000Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
533 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY. 

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD WINDY CONDITION ACROSS THE HAINES
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-032145-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-081003T2300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
533 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SKAGWAY AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

.SHORT RANGE....SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A LARGE
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CHARLOTTES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A DEEPENING 983 MB SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR
52N 134W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF THE CHARLOTTES
WILL CONTINUE TO TILT NEGATIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
WILL ALLOW CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW TO 978 MB BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF AND IT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT AND A 65
KNOT LLJ WILL HELP BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. KEPT TODAYS
PACKAGE AS IS AS BELIEVE IT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DID ADJUST THE PRESSURE
FIELD WITH THE 12Z NAM12 EARLY ON AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS
MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE 977 MB GALE
FORCE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON
BY LATE TONIGHT. AS THE GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON A
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SOUTHERLY GALES WITHIN THE INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT IN
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NEAR SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

FOR TOMORROW THE 977 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND AS IT DOES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FINALLY RELAX NEAR TAIYA INLET AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL...SO
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH NEAR SKAGWAY BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO COLD AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER
THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND SO EXPECT A
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE ADVECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THIS WILL
SUPPRESS SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MONDO UPR RIDGE THAT HAS BLOCKED EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS INTO
THE GULF HAS MOVED EAST TODAY...BUT 500HPA HGTS ARE STILL VERY
HIGH OVR THE ROCKIES. ZONAL JET AT 250 HPA FROM NORTHERN CHINA
ALMOST TO KSFO WITH 125 KT CORE S OF ADAK. 500 HPA TEMPS
INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z ON AK-GFS-40 WITH -35C AT BARROW.
SECONDARY UPR LOW OVR SW AK.

00 AND 12Z THU GFS-ENSEMBLES INSIST THAT THIS BLOCK IS WEAKENING
AND HAS BEEN FORECASTING THIS FOR MANY RUNS...JUST TOO SOON. NOW
IS THE TIME TO BUY IT WHICH ALLOWS A NEG TILTED UPR TROF TO
DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST BY 00Z SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR UPR LOW
CENTERD OVR NORTON SOUND. SOME COLD FALL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
MAJOR AND WILL ALLOW A DEEPR UPR TROF TO DIG ALONG 155W ON SUNDAY
WHICH GIVES US THE WET SW FLOW ALF THEN. NEW GFS 12Z OPS RUN
FORECASTS ANOTHER NEG TILT TO EMERGE FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT
DIGGING FURTHER OFF VNCVR ISL PUSHED ON BY -36C @500 HPA OVR
KODIAK. TENDANCY IS TO DRIVE SYSTEMS INLAND TO OUR SOUTH.

PLAN FOR FORECAST IS TO BLEND 12Z THU AK-GFS-40 THROUGH 12Z MON
THEN GO WITH HPC GRIDS. WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATE AND KEEP
SE AK WET BY GUT FEELING WITH POPS LIKELY CATEGORY.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT 17.
MARINE...GALES ALL WATERS EXCEPT PKZ052 AND PKZ053.

PSS / JC
&&