Wind Advisory 62, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 111238
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
438 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

AKZ018-111345-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-080911T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
438 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 40 MPH. GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

$$

BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...A 991 MB LOW WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM CAPE
SPENCER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WRANGELL CURRENTLY FLOODING IS NOT AN
ISSUE AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDRO ISSUES TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AN ISSUE TODAY HOWEVER. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SENSORS REVEALED SEVERAL STRIKES OFFSHORE SOUTH OF ZONE
17 EARLY THIS MORNING AND STRIKES AS FAR SOUTH AS FREDERICK SOUND
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND REPORTED BY WEATHER SPOTTERS. FORECAST
CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP MENTION OF THEM IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE NOT YET DECIDED TO KEEP THEM IN THAT LONG.

PEAK WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE COME
ASHORE AS OF 11 AM...SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL COASTAL MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER...DUE TO
RESIDUAL SEAS. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AND WIND THERE WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON. HAD
TO AMEND CLARENCE STRAIT UP TO A GALE BASED ON DATA FROM LINCOLN
ROCK AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEING OBSERVED.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE ZONE 27 WHERE POPS WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT A SMALL INDUCED
SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT WILL DISRUPT SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVEN LYNN CANAL MAY GET TO BELOW 25 KT BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL RESULT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE AND BE CONCENTRATED IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM CAPE
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH TO ABOUT SUMNER STRAIT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX OVER A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR LYNN
CANAL...WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIVERGE SOME NEXT WEEK. THE 10/00Z ECMWF HAS GONE
AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF THE MAIN LOW TRACK REMAINING WELL W OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PERIOD...AND INSTEAD
SHIFTS THE LOW TRACK TO THE ERN GULF. THE 10/12Z GFS AND UKMET
BOTH KEEP THE LOWS FURTHER W DURING THE SAME TIME...WHICH HAS
BEEN THE RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO PAFC...DECIDED TO USE THE 10/12Z GFS FOR
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...WITH A LITTLE 10/12Z NAM/UKMET MIXED
IN FOR THU NIGHT TO HANDLE A TROF MOVING ONSHORE.

FOR THU NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. KEPT HIGHEST POPS
(CATEGORICAL) IN THE N-CENTRAL AREA WITH LOWEST POPS (CHANCE)
OVER THE SRN COAST.

FOR FRI THRU MON...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NE
GULF BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN BY FRI AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BEST PRECIP THREAT
FRI INTO SAT WILL BE OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA AS WELL AS THE NW
2/3RDS OF THE ERN GULF WATERS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN FROM IT
REACHING THE PAYA AREA BY LATE SAT...THEN THE NRN INNER CHANNELS
SAT NIGHT. FAR SRN AREA WILL BE NEAR RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP TO THE NW OF THERE THRU SUN NIGHT. AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE MON...RAIN SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO
REACH THE FAR SRN AREA...BUT THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
DECREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT GETS THERE. LOOKS LIKE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE NE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT THRU MON.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LIKELY FOR MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE...ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE ERN GULF FOR
MIDWEEK. LOOKS LIKE RAIN FROM THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY FALL TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON CURRENT GFS40 TIMING OF IT. ONCE
AGAIN...THE FAR SRN AREA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN DUE TO NEARBY UPPER RIDGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...PKZ036.
         SCA...PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-041>043-051-052.

FRITSCH/RWT