Wind Advisory 54, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1219 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
THE NRN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BE N OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF
AND DISSIPATE THERE BY THIS EVENING. A LOW DEVELOPING ABOUT
400 NM S OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO JUST W OF THE CHARLOTTES
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY TO AROUND 990 MB BY THEN.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE JUST S OF THE SRN PANHANDLE BY
LATE MON AFTERNOON.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP. ATTM...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AREA AND ERN GULF IS GETTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS MORE FAVORABLE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA
MOVE THRU THE AREA. THE SRN AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS TAIL END OF MAIN VORT LOBE
MOVES THRU THEM. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

 HOWEVER...NOT SURE HOW LONG THE BREAK WILL LAST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT WILL BE SPREADING RAPIDLY
NNE INTO THE FAR SRN AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND REACH THE S-CENTRAL
AREA MON. THE ONE BIG CONCERN IS THE MODEL QVEC FIELDS SHOW
MODERATE DEEP LAYER QVEC CONVERGENCE OVER THE SRN AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREAD THIS TO THE N-CENTRAL AREA BY LATE MON. THE
NRN AREA WILL HAVE A STRONGER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE PRECIP HERE TO THOSE AREAS THAT UPSLOPE ON ELY WINDS. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE N-CENTRAL AREA MON TO HANDLE THIS
DILEMMA...WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS OUT NOW.

 OTHERWISE...WILL SEE THE SCA LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
TO THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND AND SFC LOW FILLS. WINDS ON INNER CHANNELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THRU THIS EVENING. AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES
IN...WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP TO GALES OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS
MON MORNING...WITH SCA FOR ADJACENT AREAS. NRN AREA WILL SEE
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS MON.

.LONG TERM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE COMING WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND IS HIGH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE
GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND THEN SLIDING EAST INTO CANADA BY
FRIDAY. A BLOCKY LOOKING UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE BERING
THROUGH THE WEEK DRIFTS OVER THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND. SO THIS MEANS
THAT THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE TURNING WARMER AND DRIER. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES MON NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH OVER DIXON ENTRANCE BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH WED AS
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AS FOR THE RAIN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND
EARLY TUE MORNING. SO THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE SPARED
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
COMING FROM THE E/SE FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LOW SO SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL TROF COMPLEX WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF SE AK BY FRIDAY AS A UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE GULF AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GULF. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE NW WINDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND NOW THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT. WITH
THIS CONSENSUS ON THE PATTERN CHANGES SE AK COULD SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031>036-043.

&&

RWT/ABJ