Wind Advisory 45, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 012337
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM ADT THU MAY 1 2008

AKZ027-028-020800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-080502T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
337 PM ADT THU MAY 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 AM ADT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 020745
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 PM ADT THU MAY 1 2008


AKZ027-028-020845-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-080502T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1145 PM ADT THU MAY 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT...

WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED SO THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT WED APR 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF DRIFTING NORTH AND DEEPENING.  A WEAK LOW NORTH OF
YAKUTAT AREA PRODUCED A BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
MORNING.  THIS ALSO GENERATES QUITE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
SKAGWAY AND HAINES.  THIS LOW WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY LATE
TONIGHT.  CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POPS IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH A FAST APPROACHING OF LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WILL POST
GALE WARNING EARLY TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND INCLUDE ENTIRE
OUTSIDE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.  NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
POSED FOR IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.  WILL MENTION BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
ZONES. AHN

.LONG RANGE...WET PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG
RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL DIRECT A PAIR OF LOWS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE
SECOND LOW...A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS IN RESPONSE TO A UNSEASONABLY
LARGE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...WEAK RIDGING FORMS IN THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.  WITH THE FIRST LOW MOVING SWINGING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT FRONT STRETCHED
AGAINST THE PANHANDLE WILL KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MODELS ALLOW THE LOW TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHURN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.  THE GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES THAT SEVERAL LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE GULF LOW DURING THIS TIME.  AS A RESULT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE REINTRODUCED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE SECOND LOW ROTATES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH A INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
REGARDING THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW.  LOOKS LIKE HIGH SMALL
CRAFT WINDS TO LOW GALES WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIMINISH BY MONDAY.
LIKE THE FIRST LOW...THE GFS INDICATES A SECONDARY WAVE WILL
ROTATE INTO THE GULF DURING THIS TIME.  WILL DEFER TO LATER RUNS
FOR DETAILS THERE. AS COORDINATED WITH HPC AND AFC...THESE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS TRANSITION TOWARDS A RIDGING PATTERN WILL
INCLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AND OFFSHORE FLOW
RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF.  BY DAY 8 THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING
BEGINS TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF.  AS DISCUSSED WITH
HPS AND AFC...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO BULLISH WITH ITS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE APPARENT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.  WILL NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR DAYS 7 AND 8 AT THIS
TIME. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-036.