Wind Advisory 41, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 140645
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM ADT SUN APR 13 2008

AKZ018-141315-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-080414T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1045 PM ADT SUN APR 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM ADT MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM ADT MONDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY
ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM ADT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 141251
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
451 AM ADT MON APR 14 2008

AKZ018-142000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-080414T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
451 AM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ADT TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ADT TODAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 141946
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1146 AM ADT MON APR 14 2008

AKZ018-142100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-080414T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1146 AM ADT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON ADT TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON ADT TODAY. 

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

NB/PRB

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT SUN APR 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF CROSS
SOUND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FILL THIS MORNING AS ALL THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON WITH THE
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RIDGING BEHIND THE MID LEVEL WAVE ARE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING
WHICH IS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER ON WATER VAPOR
THERE IS MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE PANHANDLE IN THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT REMAINS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/AKGFS FOR
THE PACKAGE. THE NAM HANDLED THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MUCH BETTER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT THEN WEAKENS
THE GRADIENT MUCH TOO QUICKLY. SO BLENDED TOWARD THE AKGFS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM WEAKENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DUE TO MISPLACING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN A JET
STREAK ADVECTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA RANGE. THIS JET STREAK
WILL INDUCE WEAK SURFACE LOWS TOMORROW NEAR THE ELIAS RANGE AND
IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ELIAS RANGE
WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THIS JET STREAK DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WILL CAP THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUD COVER AND STEADY RAIN TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
NEAR YAKUTAT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

FOR TONIGHT THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE QUITE
STRONG IN LYNN CANAL WITH THE LOW BUILDING INTO THE YUKON.
THEREFORE GOING TO UP THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND
EXPECTING WIND ADVY GUSTS IN AKZ018 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WITH THE MODERATE
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL SEE SNOW/SLEET MIX DOWNWARD TO THE
GROUND FOR BRIEF PERIODS BRINGING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECTING THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WEAKENING WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AND
EXPECTING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. PSS

.LONG RANGE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
EC RUNNING A LITTLE DEEPER IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HENCE SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE AT THE START OF
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT-LIVED DIFFERENCE APPEARS
ON 17/00Z WHEN EC DEPICTS A FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ORIENTED NE TO SW AND ENTERING THE GULF NEAR CAPE SPENCER.
AT THIS SAME TIME THE GFS IS DEPICTING A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE ORIENTED MORE EAST-WEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF.
BY 18/12Z...BOTH MODEL ONCE AGAIN IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...EC BUILDS IN A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER
ALL OF ALASKA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...THOUGH THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME BETWEEN THE TWO.

SOME SIGNIFICANT GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD BETWEEN 16/06Z AND
17/06Z OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...SO DEGRADED CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE PRETTY TIGHT ENSEMBLE
GROUPING THROUGHOUT THE MODEL RUN INSOFAR AS IT AFFECTS SEAK
WEATHER. AS DID THE NIGHT SHIFT...WILL NUDGE TO CURRENT GFS MODEL
RUN.

PLENTY OF POP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
AND PEAKS WITH A LOW THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST DOWN THE PANHANDLE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. AM FORECASTING LOW 20S FOR YAKUTAT...MID 20S FOR
HYDER AND THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS...AND LOW 30S AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE DIXON ENTRANCE. NOT A LOT OF POP IN THE PANHANDLE FORECAST
BY THAT TIME SO SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ZONE 29 WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ZONE 28 AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
MARINE ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER A MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS DURING THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME. FCF

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING PKZ036
      ...SMCR ADVY PKZ031 033>035 041>043 051 052