Wind Advisory 39, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 231959
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1159 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

AKZ017-232100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-080323T2000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1159 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON ADT TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON ADT TODAY. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ023-232315-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.080323T2300Z-080324T0800Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1159 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-027-232315-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.080324T0200Z-080324T0800Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1159 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT ADT TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...COMPLICATED SITUATION FOR THE AREA THE NEXT 24
HRS. 985 MB LOW IS ABOUT 120 NM W PASI AND WILL CONTINUE WNW TO
THE N-CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE SW
GULF...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM THAT HIT THE AREA FRI...WILL
COME AROUND FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT US THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE TRICKY ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST WAS DECIDING TO LEAVE THE
CURRENT WIND ADVYS GOING THRU 6 AM WITH FIRST LOW DEPARTING...AS
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIND ADVYS WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS SECOND LOW MOVES IN. DECIDED TO NOT PUT THOSE OUT
WITH THE 5 AM ISSUANCE DUE TO THE ONGOING ADVYS...BUT ONCE THE
CURRENT SET OF ADVYS EXPIRE...WILL LIKELY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
NEW ADVYS WITH AN EARLY UPDATE. ALSO...WILL KEEP THE HEAVY SNOW
WARNING FOR THE CHILKAT VALLEY GOING THRU 6 AM.

THE SECOND LOW MOVING IN WILL BRING MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE ERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
THE COASTAL AREA TONIGHT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED THAT SOMEONE COULD
GET A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWFALL DUE TO PERSISTENT INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT THAT AREA ATTM. WILL KEEP
THE SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT BELOW ADVY LEVELS ATTM...AND LET DAY
SHIFT GET BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR AS SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST LOW. THE AIRMASS IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLE
DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SNOW
SITUATION GETS MORE CONCERNING TONIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEGIN TO POP UP THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE MAJOR UPPER LOW VORTEX IN
THE GULF OF AK. DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE...JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER VORTEX OF THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE DETAILS WITH INDIVIDUAL
VORTS/SURFACE LOWS WILL STILL NEED TO GET RESOLVED. THE
MULTI-CENTERED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL ROTATE ANOTHER LOW
INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT BUT WEAKEN TO A TROF AS IT MOVES
NW TUE. THE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF IS ON THE COLDER SIDE SOME
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES IN PLACES.

THE MAIN LOW WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED AS
UPPER LEVEL VORTEX BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SE OVER THE PANHANDLE SO THE DRYING OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE RAIN/SNOW
OVER THE COASTAL AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS FOR WED INTO THURS.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THERE IS LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AS
THERE IS DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HANDLES A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH BERING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO DIG THIS FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF/NORTH PACIFIC FRIDAY
INTO SAT WHILE THE GFS IS BRINGING THE UPPER VORT/LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS AT THE SURFACE AND THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LOW.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF LONGER
WHILE THE ECMWF DRIFTS THE LOW SE FASTER. THINK THE GFS IS DOING
A LITTLE BIT BETTER AS MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WOULD KEEP THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH IN
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE AMPLITUDE TYPE
FLOW AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ATTM. FOR RIGHT NOW THERE IS A
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT COULD BE
DRIER ON FRIDAY IF THE LOW DOES DIG INTO THE GULF AND BUILD A
SHARPER RIDGE ALOFT TO INCREASE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. BOTH MODELS
DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY NEXT
SAT BUT THERE IS TIMING ISSUES SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT SYSTEM.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVYS...ZONES 22>24..26>28 THRU 6 AM TODAY
MARINE...GALE...PKZ041>043-051-052
...SCA...PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>036-053