Wind Advisory 30, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 070031
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

.A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

AKZ021-024>026-071330-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T1500Z-080308T0000Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
331 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED CHANNELS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ023-027-028-071330-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T0900Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
331 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AST
FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST AREA EXPECTED IN
CHANNELED AREAS ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST CHANNELS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-022-071330-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T0900Z-080307T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
331 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN
CHANNELED AREAS ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST CHANNELS

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
MM

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 070554
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
854 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

.A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY.

AKZ023-027-071415-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T0554Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
854 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST AREA EXPECTED IN
CHANNELED AREAS ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST CHANNELS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-022-071415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T0900Z-080307T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
854 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED
IN CHANNELED AREAS ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST CHANNELS

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ028-071415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T0900Z-080308T0000Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
854 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST AREA EXPECTED IN
CHANNELED AREAS ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST CHANNELS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ021-024>026-071415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T1500Z-080308T0000Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
854 PM AST THU MAR 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AST FRIDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED CHANNELS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 071313
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

AKZ026-072100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T1313Z-080307T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-072115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ021-024-025-072100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.080307T1500Z-080307T2100Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ023-027-028-072115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. 

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-072100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080307T2100Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
413 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 072059
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1159 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

AKZ021-024>026-072200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080307T2100Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
1159 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. 

WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING AROUND
35 MPH. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ022-023-027-072300-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080307T2300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1159 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-028-080000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1159 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AST TOIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 072254
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
154 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

AKZ022-023-027-080000-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080307T2300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
154 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ017-028-080000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
154 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 072354
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
254 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008


AKZ017-028-080100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-080308T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
254 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED MAR 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A LARGE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. LARGE BAROCLINIC BAND OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A SOURCE
REGION WELL SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES NORTH.  SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS CAN
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BAND THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS TRACKING NORTHWARD...LOCATED AROUND 45N 145W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE HAS BEGUN
UNDER-CUTTING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE THE RIDGE AXIS
IS TILTING. GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT
BUOYS 085...205 AND 084 AS WELL AS MIDDLETON ISLAND.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD LOWER QPF VALUES IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
AT THE HIGH END...PAYA INDICATES ABOUT AN INCH IN 12 HOURS WHICH
IS HALF OF YESTERDAYS VALUE. THESE VALUES SEEM MORE REASONABLE
WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE UNDER-CUTTING THE RIDGE AND SPLITTING THE
FLOW.  THE PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED THAT A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE WOULD TRAIN MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...HOWEVER
THIS SCENARIO NOW SEEMS LESS LIKELY. RFC IS RUNNING QPF VALUES
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING...HOWEVER INITIAL
THINKING IS THAT ONLY NUISANCE ROAD FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.  A
DECISION WILL BE MADE WITH THE RFC BEFORE SHIFT END.

ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL START SPREADING EASTWARD BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...THEN ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT.  DO EXPECT THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES.  A WARM
SOUTHERLY SURGE AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO KEEP PRETTY MUCH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE INLAND IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO SNOW MIXING AT TIMES IN THE
NORTH...BUT THIS SNOW WILL BE SLUSHY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
TONIGHT. FRONT LOSES ITS MOMENTUM AS IT BUMPS ALONG THE EXISTING
RIDGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH SMALL CRAFTS AT BEST IN
THE INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG RANGE...GFS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE REASONABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE
GUIDANCE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. BEYOND 84
HOURS ECMWF AND GFS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE
FEATURES BUT HAVE LARGER DIFFERENCES ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF
THE NEXT TWO LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WILL FOCUS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND EARLY SUNDAY
PERIODS USING 12Z GFS40 AND LIMIT OR MAKE NO CHANGES TO LONGER
RANGE PERIODS.

WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE...THAT REBUILT IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...STARTING TO MOVE OFF
EAST AS A NEW GALE TO STORM FORCE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THINK FOG
IS A GOOD BET WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH NEW SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING ACROSS PAYA
AND NORTHERN COAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH WARM SECTOR RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A 970 MB GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE KENAI
PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND MODEST COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSE OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY OCCLUDE FRIDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE
TERRAIN OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS
STRONG INDICATION OF LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING ARCH AND WILL LIKELY BOOST
CURRENT FORECAST OF GALES TO MIN STORMS. LESS WIND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS BUT WILL SEE 25 TO 30 KT SMCR FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE HIGHER GUST APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR PAJN-PAHN-PAGY AREAS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
STATEMENTS FOR NOW. MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTH
OF 30N WITH A MODEST 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UVV UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES IN 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR WETTER COASTAL
REGIONS AND 0.8 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA

A SMALL WAVE/LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE EASTERN
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SOUTHERN ZONES
UNTIL MID DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL ALSO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN BC COAST. SE WINDS
FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS ZONES INCREASE 30 KT TO 35 KT
FRIDAY WITH INITIAL FRONT AND THEN DROP OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND FRONT STALLS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVE MOVES INLAND AND FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. BY LATE MORNING EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN WEAK CAA AND SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS TAPER OFF OR END THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME BREAKS SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOG AND FROST
TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

ANOTHER GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW LIFTS NNW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THERE IS AN INDICATION OF AN ESE BARRIER
JET IN THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING ARCH AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. WILL KEEP MAX GALES IN AFTERNOON
FORECAST GIVEN THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE POSITIONAL AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCE START TO ARISE. THIS WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN TO ALL OF PANHANDLE SUNDAY.

ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST BY GFS TO DUMBBELL SOUTH OF PANHANDLE
MONDAY WHICH AS PROGGED ALLOWS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO SINK INTO
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE - 41-42-43-51-52
         SMCR - 11-21-22-33-34-35-36-53

KJH/MM