Wind Advisory 29, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030537
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
837 PM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

AKZ027-030645-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.080303T0900Z-080303T1800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
837 PM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ028-030645-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-080303T0600Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
837 PM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AST THIS EVENING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WARM OCCLUSION CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON
SATELLITE INDICATE THE WARMER MID LEVEL AIR HAS CONVECTIVELY
MIXED DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE TO ALL RAIN. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREA WHERE THE SNOW IS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND ZONE 28 AND 29 WHERE THE HIGH PRECIP
RATES ARE ALLOWING COLDER AIR AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE GULF CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. THE GFS40 INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND THE MID LEVEL VORT FIELD SO
NUDGED THE CURRENT PACKAGE TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF MODEL IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD AS IT HANDLED THE CHANNELED WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE VERY WELL.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN
THE WEST DIXON ENTRANCE AREA...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL
VORT CENTER IN THE GULF. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH HEAVY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AT TIMES. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SO WILL KEEP
THE WIND ADVY IN ZONE 27 AND 28. AGREED WITH THE CONCERN OF THE
MID SHIFT ON A MIX OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TONIGHT NEAR FREDERICK SOUND AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL VORT FEATURE
ACROSS THE CHARLOTTES AND THE SHEARING AND WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHERN MID LEVEL VORT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE DEFORMATION AND BANDING
POTENTIAL NEAR AND ALONG FREDERICK SOUND. WILL ADD SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ZONE 26 BUT EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO BE BELOW ADVY AT THIS TIME AS COLDER AIR DOES NOT
ADVECT INTO THE AREA TILL NEAR 06Z. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NORTHERN
UPPER LEVEL VORT FEATURE AND THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR MONDAY THE APPROACH AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
SHIELD EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL OCCUR IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OF PAJN AND PAGS. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION EXPECT
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ZONES 28 AND 29 TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
PUSHES EASTWARD. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PAYA AREA BY LATE MONDAY. PSS

.LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THURSDAY
AND BEYOND.  NUDGED THE FORECAST 50 PERCENT TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND MADE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC/INTERSITE
COORDINATION TWEAKS BEYOND.

FORECAST BEGINS WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTHWARD INTO YUKON.  THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...A LOW
FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
DIRECTS A  FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...A WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  CONSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMING
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM...I.E. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH...THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID.  WIND-WISE...IT APPEARS THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP OVER THE OUTSIDE/COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT AT BEST IN THE INNER
CHANNELS.

BEHIND THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...THE MODELS BECOME SKEWED.  VERY HIGH
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD COUPLED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW.  OVERALL IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS WET WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 27 AND 28

MARINE...GALE...PKZ036-041>043-051-052
      ...SMCR...PKZ011-021-022-031>035-053