Wind Advisory 26, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 282332
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AST THU FEB 28 2008

AKZ027-028-290045-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-080229T0100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
232 PM AST THU FEB 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

NF

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1130 AM AST THU FEB 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA
HOLDING IN PLACE WHILE THE WEATHER FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SHOULD SEE THE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY EITHER AT THE SURFACE OR GOING
ALOFT AS IT MOVES TO CANADA. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH RAIN OR MIX OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA. THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST HAS A SNOW OR MIX WITH A BETTER BIT OF
COOLER AIR FROM CANADA MOVING OFF SHORE OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR DUE TO THE
TEMPERATURE NEAR FREEZING.

GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT HAVE PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES OF 27 AND 28 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC TO BE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION
TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE
WAVE MOVING NORTH... WHILE IT CONTINUES TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
ZONES AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AT PETERSBURG/WRANGLE BY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF DUE TO A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF KEEPING SHOWERS
SPREADING ONSHORE THERE...MAINLY WEST OF YAKUTAT.

.LONG RANGE...LONG TERM PATTERN STILL REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW A PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
BERING FROM A TROUGH ACROSS THE YUKON. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS
ALLOWS FOR A CONSISTENT PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN INTO THE WEEKEND IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ATTM THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS THE
ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TO A PAEL-PAOH-PAGN LINE. WILL
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE MID SHIFT AND KEEP THE ARCTIC FRONT
ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ICY STRAIT. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE. ATTM MOMENT CONTINUING TO EXPECT ADV SNOW IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE EXACT
AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE INCREASED LIFT BROUGHT BY THE APPROACH
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL COMMUNITY IS QUITE
DIFFERENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS MID LEVEL SYSTEM SO FAR WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE STRONGEST AND THE 12Z GFS BEING THE
WEAKEST. WENT WITH A 50-50 BLEND UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT
OF AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PACKAGE A SERIES OF FRONTS
APPROACH THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY...TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY IN THE LONG TERM AND CONFINING THE
SNOW TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 00Z AND 06Z NAEFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE
ONSHORE PATTERN. SO NUDGED THE LONG TERM PACKAGE TOWARD THESE
SOLUTIONS BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT A WET AND BREEZY WEEK AHEAD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT PKZ013-021-022-032>036-041>043-051-052

BMB/PSS