Wind Advisory 11, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 190250
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

AKZ027-190400-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-080119T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
550 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...TWO LOWS HAVE MATTERED TO THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE.  WE WILL CALL THEM LOWS ONE AND TWO.
LOW ONE WAS 1010 MB LOW AND ABOUT 500 NM W OF KETCHIKAN
AT 12Z MOVING ESE.   THIS FIRST LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
SHOULD REACH THE VICINITY OF LANGARA 12Z TONIGHT.

LOW TWO WAS ROUGHLY 1010 MB AND ROUGHLY 100 NM SW OF
CAPE FAIRWEATHER AT 12Z TRACKING ENE...MAY HAVE BEEN
CLOSED TO ONLY ABOUT 4 MB...AND HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. QUICKSCAT DISPLAYS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOW A
SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG OUTER COAST FROM CSP TO CORDAVA
WITH 30 KT WINDS IN MUCH OF MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52. BUOY
46083 HAD A SPEED OF 29G34KT. THIS LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER BUT USED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW EVENT THAT INCLUDES SKAGWAY
AT THIS TIME.  GOES IR DOES DEPICT WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
DEFORMATION BAND WITH A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD MASS REACHING
A SITKA TO SKAGWAY LINE ABOUT 1815Z.

THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED TOGETHER LOWS ONE AND TWO...
ALONG WITH A LOW ABOUT 150 NM S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. IT IS
KEEPING THE AVERAGED LOW EVEN AFTER THE ACTUAL FAIRWEATHER
LOW HAS ALREADY MADE LANDFALL AND FILLED.  THIS DIFFICULTY
WITH THE GFS ONLY MATTERS FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS BETTER FOR DAYTIME SATURDAY.  UKMET IS
BEING USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
GFS/UKMET BLEND FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG RANGE...
MODELS START OUT REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.  THEN THE RIDGE GIVES WAY AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
CROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK CAUSING THE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY. BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE LAST TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE BERING SEA.

CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL QUICKLY DROP THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SAT NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR WILL PERSIST
ALOFT PRODUCING A STRONG INVERSION THAT TRAPS MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. CONSIDERABLE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT SAT AND
OUTFLOW FROM THE INTERIOR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF ALL THE FOG UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND PRECIPITATION SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...AFTER AMDS...WIND ADVISORY AKZ027 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
MARINE...AFTER AMDS...SCA 033-036 AND 041-043 AND 51-52.