Wind Advisory 103, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 192050
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008


AKZ018-192200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-081219T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1150 AM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY. 

THE WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDDAY. GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH EVEN
FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUED OVER
SE AK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
2 DEGREES ABOVE AT THE JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE TO 5 DEGREES AT
HAINES AND 12 DEGREES AT KETCHIKAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER PAYA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AND TRACKING EAST A LITTLE BUT STILL PROVIDING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE 90 KT JET NOW MORE TO THE EAST. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PAGY WITH
NORTH EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. DID NOT PUT
OUT A WIND ADVISORY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TREND WAS LOWERING
AND WINDS WERE NOT EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.

 THE RIDGE WILL BE SPLIT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE W GULF
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE E GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FATTENED RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE KEEPING THE PANHANDLE DRY THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM
PERIOD. PAYA KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DUE TO A WEAKENING
TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERN YUKON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PICKUP TO GALES
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WITH SMCR WINDS ALONG THE OUTSIDE
WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE S PANHANDLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

 MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZED WELL REGARDING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE YUKON BEING MUCH WEAKER. THE GEM DID BETTER WITH THIS FEATURE
SO USED A BLEND OF THE GEM AND GFS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND INHERITED GRIDS TOWARDS
THE END AS THE GFS HAD A BETTER SOLUTION ALONG THE BOARDER WITH
ANCHORAGE.

.LONG TERM...THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN TO BE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. WHERE CHANGES WERE MADE USED A BLEND OF THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE MID RANGE AND FOR THE LONG RANGE USED
SOME OF THE HPC GUIDANCE ALSO. THERE IS GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORNING PACKAGE WITH THE STABLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS.

THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE THIS WILL KEEP ANY LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM FROM MOVING
OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY SAT MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP SE AK CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH COLD TEMPS
AS CAA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREAS AS THE A STRONG N/NE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE HIGH IN THE INTERIOR AND THE LOW
SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS NEAR INTERIOR GAPS ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS...SO A WIND ADVY WILL BE NEEDED NEAR PAGY AND PAHN SAT
NIGHT ALONG WITH LOCAL AREAS IN MISTY FJORDS. OVER THE MARINE
AREAS GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SE. WITH THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF THERE WILL
VERY LOW CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP THROUGH SUN NIGHT. DID LOWER SOME
TEMPS TO REFLECT THE COOLING FROM THE CAA ALONG WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST AND FLATTEN SOME AS A UPPER TROF OVER THE
BERING DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON. THIS TROF WILL
INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PAYA
AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SOME MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF LIFTS OVER THE AREAS. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROF
WILL NOT MAKE IN OVER SE AK AS IT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC FOLLOWING THE JET STREAM AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE BERING. A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE SE AK ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN
SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL
AREAS BUT COULD GET INTO THE INNER CHANNELS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OVER THE GULF AND SE AK WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT THE RIDGE IS FLATTENING OUT AND THE EC AND GFS
IS INDICATING THAT WITH THE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
SO CONTINUED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

PRB/ABJ