Wind Advisory 101, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 170051
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

AKZ018-170900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081218T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
351 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON IS PRODUCING STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-170900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.081217T0900Z-081218T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
351 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
AKST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
AKST WEDNESDAY. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 170750
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1050 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

AKZ017-171700-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.081217T0900Z-081218T0000Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1050 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-171700-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081218T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1050 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON IS PRODUCING
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171316
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
416 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

AKZ017-171800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081217T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
416 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...MAINLY
EAST OF YAKUTAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-172100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081217T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
416 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

BECKER

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171754
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
854 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

AKZ017-171900-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081217T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
854 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-172100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081217T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
854 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON PRODUCING STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 172047
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1147 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008


AKZ018-172200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081217T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1147 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
128 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE 1046 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE YUKON CONTINUES
TO PERSIST BRINGING NORTHEAST FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE SLACKENED OFF AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST RANGES HAS BACKED OFF SINCE
YESTERDAY. CURRENT WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

 UPPER AIR...UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE NORTHERN YUKON CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL RIDE THE RIDGE AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.

 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
AS IT IS BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MB. IT
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL
HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FORCING FOR
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INTO CANADA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE SO ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAT WILL
AGAIN START TO CLEAR US OUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

 INHERITED GRIDS WERE BLENDED WITH THE LATEST RUN FROM NAM FOR
THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND THEN ADDED IN THE GFS FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD. NAM IS STILL DOING A GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH IN
THE YUKON AND DOES NOT MOVE THE HIGH OUT AS QUICKLY AS SOME OF
THE OTHER MODELS. GFS AND THE NAM BOTH PICK UP ON THE SHORT WAVE
TUESDAY. THOUGHT THE NAM PRODUCED TOO HIGH POPS FOR THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BLEND BROUGHT THE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THU...THEN
THEY DIVERGE THEREAFTER. THE MAIN DILEMMA FURTHER OUT IS HOW FAR N
AND E AN UPPER LOW WILL GET BEFORE TURNING SE. MOST MODELS TAKE
THE LOW SE BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM IT WOULD GET TO SE
AK...BUT SOME MODELS ARE TAKING A MORE NLY TRACK AND BRING IN
PRECIP TO THE AREA. 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT
OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SUN...BUT THE 12Z RUN GREATLY
REDUCED THOSE AMOUNTS AND KEPT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. AFTER
COORD WITH WFO PAFC...DECIDED TO USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH THE NEW HPC GRIDS FOR FRI ONWARD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS COMING IN TUE NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...SO TEMPS WERE LOWERED TO SOME DEGREE IN ALL AREAS
THROUGH FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS BUT DID
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LEAST IN THE GRIDS FRI NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT...IN DEFERENCE TO THE MODELS THAT BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP
FURTHER NE...AND TO THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AT LEAST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034>036-
          041>043-051-052.

EAL/RWT