Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 130020
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-131730-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 978 MB GALE FORCE LOW NEAR CAPE SPENCER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE YUKON TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ011-131730-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-131730-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-131730-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-131730-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-131730-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. W SWELL LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ031-131730-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-131730-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-131730-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-131730-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-131730-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-131730-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...976 MB LOW JUST E OF BUOY 46184 WILL CONTINUE NNE
TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NE AND BE
NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL LIFT NNE THRU THE NE GULF TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN WIND AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WIND WILL BE
STRONGEST ON S SIDE OF LOW...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY THERE
FOR A SHORT PERIOD...BUT ALSO SOME ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE STRONGER S-SW WINDS WILL MOVE IN
ON S SIDE OF LOW IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHORTLY AFTER THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH A SHORT BREAK POSSIBLE BETWEEN
WIND REGIMES. THE N-CENTRAL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR STRONGEST
WINDS THIS EVENING ONCE LOW MOVES INLAND AND IMPRESSIVE S
GRADIENT MOVES OVER AREA. ISSUED WIND ADVYS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR
THE EVENING HOURS TO HANDLE THIS. SHOULD SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN
WINDS OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WINDS UP LYNN CANAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE LOW TRACK MAY BE TOO
FAR S FOR ADVY WINDS FOR THE PAGY/PAHN AREAS...SO DID NOT ISSUE
ONE FOR THEM ATTM.

AS FOR THE SNOW...BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE AROUND PAHN
AND CHILKAT VALLEY AS S-SE FLOW OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
KEPT THE WARNING GOING FOR THEM TODAY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SNOW
ADVYS FOR THE PAJN/PAGS/PAEL/PAOH AREAS ALSO...BUT THE PAJN AND
PAGS LOCAL AREAS MAY NOT GET TO 4 INCHES DUE TO TOO MUCH E-SE
FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS AS BEST MID-LEVEL LIFT MOVES IN TODAY AND
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP GOING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS IN THEIR ZONES WILL MOST LIKELY GET 4 INCHES(WHERE E-SE
FLOW IS NOT SO DOWNSLOPY). PAOH/PAEL WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCE TO
GET 4 INCHES WITH E-SE FLOW BEING MORE UPSLOPE OR NEUTRAL FOR
THEM. STILL...EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHOULD GO BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.

ONCE LOW IS INLAND AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES NE
GULF AREA LATER TONIGHT...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE PAYA AREA AS SLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO BE
OCCURRING THERE BY LATE EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THEM FOR POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...00Z AND 06Z MODELS DEPICTING VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE TO THE EARLIER 12Z RUNS.
THEREFORE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND TO ANCHORAGE AT THE BORDERS
AND TO INTRODUCE THE 00Z GFS TO DAYS 5 THROUGH 8...AS PER
COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE.

THE JET STEERS A POTENT LOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE JET TO CAPE
DECISION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL ZONES WHILE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
THE INNER CHANNELS.  A LARGE VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT/JUNEAU.  COLD AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY SNOW TO FALL IN THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS INITIALLY.  THE QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION VERSUS HOW QUICKLY WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA.  SNOW ADVISORIES ARE PROBABLY FOR THE CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM SITUATION...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.

ONCE THIS STORM DISSIPATES MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
PATTERN UNDERGOES A SHIFT AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE. THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURES GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
THE UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS MID-WEEK AND
DROPS SOUTH...FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY.  LATE WEEK THE RIDGE RESTORES ITSELF AND WE DROP BACK TO
CHANCE POPS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING...ZONE 19
      ...WINTER STORM WATCH...ZONE 17 TONIGHT
      ...WIND ADVY...ZONES 20>29

MARINE...STORM...PKZ041-042-310
      ...GALE...PKZ012-013-031>034-036-043
      ...SCA...PKZ011-021-022-035-051-052