Storm Warning 50, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 111244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW BY THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT LATE. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
113 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...EMPHASIS ON WIND EVENTS IS GIVEN BELOW. WEAK SNOW
EVENT IN NORTHERN HALF OF PNHDL IS TAKING PLACE AT  THIS TIME,
BUT CHG TO MOSTLY LIQUID SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTRN.

 STRONG SECTION OF POLAR FRONT ZONE IN BAND FM 600 NM S OF  COLD
BAY TO 700 NM S OF YAKUTAT.  JETSTREAM VALUES AS HIGH AS 185 KT
HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FOR CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM
700 S PAYA.  NEXT MAJOR WAVE UPSTREAM HAD A JETSTREAM VALUE OF
217 KT.  THESE VALUES ARE AS MUCH AS 40 KT HIGHER THAN THE MODELS
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH CYCLONE  EVOLOTIONS DIFFERENT FM THE AVBL
MODELS.  IN GENERAL THE NAM  FAVORS A NE TRACK WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM MOVG THROUGH SRN SE AK  WHEREAS THE GFS FAVORS A SHARPER
TURN N ALG THE OUTER COAST  OF THE PNHDL. WE ARE TRYING TO BE AS
PROBALISTIC AS WE CAN TO  REPRESENT THE THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS HAVE A  WIDE SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS LOW.

 BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE FIRST WAVE TO TRACK  NE
AND HAVE A RAPID CLYCLOGENESIS SLOWG THE LOW FASTER AND THEREFORE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE MODELS.  THE FIRST SYSTEM  IS THE
REASON FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PUBLIC  ZONES 23, 27,
AND 28.  ALSO NOTE THE AMD TO MARINE ZONES HAVE STORM WARNINGS IN
THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES.

 RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY WITH DATA
BUOY 46004 GOOD SITE TO MONITOR WITH PRESFR.  BUOY 46184 IS IN
THE BEST LOCATION BUT IS OTS.

.LONG TERM...CONTINUING 500 MB LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE THE PNHDL WED-THURS WITH A DEVELOPING TOUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AKGULF THROUGH SAT. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN BUT THEN DIFFER GREATLY AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.

ON WED CURRENTLY HAVE A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE S PNHDL...PLAN
ON NEAR SMCRFT WINDS OVER THIS AREA. MODELS VARIED WIDELY
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW. WENT WITH 12Z GFS FOR
CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS
DIMINISHING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREAS ON FRI IS THE REAL
QUESTION. PREVIOUS EC RUNS AND HPC KEPT THE LOW ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE GFS MORE TO THE EAST AND DEEPER. THE 12Z
EC TRACK THEN SWITCHED TO FOLLOW THE GFS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
ANCHORAGE DECIDED TO BLEND WITH THE EC AND GFS TO MOVE THE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL KEPT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS GRIDS. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK
EXPECTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH IN THE LOW WARM SECTOR. IF
THE TRACK DOES MOVE EAST THEN COULD BE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PNHDL. SEEING SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH THE THE EASTERLY TRACK BUT MOS
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP. OTHER ISSUES
WITH THE LOW TRACK ARE THE INTENSITY OF THE JET WHICH WAS UNDER
DEVELOPED IN MOST MODELS AND COULD ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE LOW AND
TRACK IT MORE TO THE WEST.

WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL RUNS AND SOLUTION
SPREADS HAVE PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 3 AND
DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 7. SAW ENOUGH CHANGES TO MAKE ALTERATIONS TO
THE CURRENT GRIDS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
STATEMENTS REGARDING THE FRIDAY LOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032.

&&

JBT/PRB