Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 191648 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-200100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW
WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-200100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-200100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-200100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-200100-
ICY STRAIT-
630 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-200100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-200100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-200100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
630 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-200100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
950 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-200100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-200100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
950 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-200100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
935 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008 

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 200050 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-201900-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 982 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF BY TUE MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE N PACIFIC WILL ENTER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND DEEPEN TO A
STORM FORCE LOW THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ011-201900-
GLACIER BAY-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-201900-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-201900-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-201900-
ICY STRAIT-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-201900-
CROSS SOUND-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-201900-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-201900-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-201900-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO
2 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT
LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-201900-
FREDERICK SOUND-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-201900-
SUMNER STRAIT-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-201900-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
447 PM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING EARLY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT BY LATE EVENING. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKDT SUN OCT 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO
FILL AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO WRAP LARGE
AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR AT MID LEVELS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
AS SEEN ON SATELLITE. THIS COLD AIR ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HAS ALLOWED A SECOND SURFACE LOW TO FORM
WITHIN THE TRIPLE POINT JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. THIS SECOND
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL STRUCTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING CONTINUING
TO BRING RAIN. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS A 60 KNOT LLJ AT 850 MB
CONTINUES MIX WIND ADVY GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE 850
MB LLJ WILL WEAKEN AND BE CONFINED TO JUST ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT
BY THE LATE MORNING. THEREFORE BELIEVE WIND ADVY GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING IN THE HYDABURG AREA AND ALONG WESTERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. ELSEWHERE SMCR ADVY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...BUT GALES WILL
CONTINUE ALL DAY WITHIN CLARENCE STRAIT WITH THE 850 MB LLJ
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES NEAR KETCHIKAN AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. USED THE 00Z GFS
IN TODAYS PACKAGE AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS AND IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z
UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AS
CAA OCCURS FROM 850 THROUGH 500 MB EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS MID
LEVEL CAA COMBINED WITH PVA IN THE ADVANCED OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE MORE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED NEAR SKAGWAY AS IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE
MID LEVEL PVA TO MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE FORMING...HOWEVER WITH A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE 850 MB LLJ FINALLY
ADVECTS INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
SMCR WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 9
TO 14 FEET WITH THE SW SWELL.

.LONG TERM...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STORM FORCE LOW ENTERING THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF LATE TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY ARE BEING EXAGGERATED BY THE VERY DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND THE VERY STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS INVOLVED. BLENDED GFS AND
UKMET TO EXISTING GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
THIS TIME...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WERE SO RADICAL THAT
NO COMPROMISE WAS POSSIBLE IN BLENDING...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF
HPC AND ECMWF.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO WIDE SPREAD GALES OVER A MAJORITY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS...AM EXPECTING TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OVER THE
OUTER COAST FROM CAPE SPENCER SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 26 AND 28 MAY ALSO
BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST GALES DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER VERY DEEP LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. DO
NOT THINK THIS ONE WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE PANHANDLE BUT
RATHER WILL COME ASHORE VICINITY PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND FILL.
ASSUMING THIS...THE PANHANDLE WILL BE SPARED THE WORST OF THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS CURRENTLY OFFERING A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION
WITH REGARD TO THIS LOW AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THE THIRD VERY DEEP LOW AND THIRD ROUND OF GALES OVER THE MARINE
ZONES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO HE GULF AND HEADS
FOR THE COAST VICINITY CAPE SUCKLING.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR PAST THREE DAYS IN FORECASTING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS PHRASE IN THE MORNING FORECAST AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
SETS UP. SNOW LEVEL FORECAST ALSO REFLECTS THE FALLING TEMPS AND
AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME SNOW IN YAKUTAT...HOONAH...AND JUNEAU BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT A WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-041>043-051-052.

&&

PSS/FRITSCH