Storm Warning 20, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 162315
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND OVER THE SE YUKON SUN EVENING. AN AREA OF STORM
FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS THIS EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 170645 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS WEAKENING
ACROSS NORTHERN BC. A DEVELOPING 988 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1045 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1045 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  NEXT
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. THE FRONT ARCS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN SOUTH TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BEFORE CURLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THERE IS WAVE ON
THE FRONT THAT THIS MORNING IN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF BUOY
46085. THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE WHAT STARTS TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION... MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING
ON THE FRONT WILL RUN ALONG IT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTER GULF
BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS WITH THIS FEATURE THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE COMING FROM ON SUNDAY.  MODELS SETTLING ON IDEA
THAT LOW MAY JUMP PART INLAND TO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
KEEP A SECOND PART OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA.

WITH THE COLDER AIR THAT SPREAD IN UNDER THE RIDGE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION THERE TO
START AS SNOW OR EVEN STAY SNOW.

FLOW ABOUT THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SEEMS FAVORABLE TO
DROP AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HOONAH AND HAINES
REGIONS AND A LITTLE LESS (2 TO 4 OR SO) ON SURROUNDING ZONES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE AMOUNT MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AND LOW SPREADING GALE FORCE
WINDS INTO THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT TO SUNDAY. WITH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS FOR THE MARINE AREAS OVER THE INNER WATERS.  GUSTS LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREA
FROM CROSS SOUND SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS PUBLIC
ZONES.

.LONG RANGE...IMPROVED AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND UKMET SINCE THE
00Z MODEL RUN. OVERALL VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ALL TYPICALLY
USED MODELS THROUGH 19/00Z. AFTER THIS TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO EMERGE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WHICH APPEAR TO ORIGINATE
WITH HOW EACH MODEL RESOLVES A SHORT WAVE UNDER CUTTING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ON 18 MARCH. GFS ATTACHES IT
TO A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE TROUGH OF
THE PREVAILING LONG WAVE OVER SAKHALIN ISLAND. ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...COMPLETES THE UNDERCUT AND ATTACHES THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NEXT DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE OVER ALASKA. AS A RESULT...ECMWF
DIGS THE RESULTANT SHORT WAVE MUCH MORE DEEPLY INTO THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS NOT NEARLY AS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS SAME TIME. END
RESULT ..SMALL CRAFT PKZ011>013-031>036

BMB/FCF