Small Craft Advisory 710, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 052212 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 999 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND CROSS
THE OUTER COAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ011-060100-
GLACIER BAY-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-060100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-060100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
959 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-060100-
ICY STRAIT-
959 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-060100-
CROSS SOUND-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-060100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
959 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO
2 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-060100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-060100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-060100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-060100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-060100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES... SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT IS TAPPING INTO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
STREAMING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE LEAF HAS BEEN
STREAMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALL NIGHT. RAIN HAS BEEN
STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL ALL NIGHT BUT HAVE NOT
SEEN AND REPORTS OF HEAVY PRECIP. IN HYDER...A WINTER WEATHER
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY BUT
WILL NOT GET A GOOD LOOK AT STORM TOTALS SO FAR UNTIL THE FIRST
STEWART REPORT LATER THIS MORNING. USED NAM FOR PRIMARY GUIDANCE
TONIGHT AND THIS MODEL IS DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION
BAND MOVING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO MAY YET SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND ANOTHER 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN HYDER. ELSEWHERE...NOT
A LOT OF PRECIP GOING ON NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND EXCEPT FOR
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER JUNEAU. RAIN WILL
CREEP NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT SO THAT ONLY YAKUTAT HAS
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

 HAVE BEEN SEEING PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SITKA AND WRANGELL
OVERNIGHT WITH JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY GETTING THE MOST DENSE FOG
WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FREQUENTLY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. EXPECT
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

 MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LOW ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF THE DIXON
ENTRANCE AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
PLACES THE LOW UNDERNEATH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF AND SO NO LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS YET EVIDENT ON IMAGERY. SCATTEROMETER DATA LATER
THIS MORNING MAY BE HELPFUL. NO SYNOPTIC MARINE REPORT FROM THAT
AREA EITHER SO HAVE VERY LITTLE TO GO ON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT MODEL DATA. THE LOW IS LOCATED
UNDERNEATH THE LEFT DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE JET SO IT IS IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT. NAM DEVELOPED THE LOW THE
MOST OF THE MODELS. THIS PLUS A BETTER FIT BY NAM TO JET LOCATION
AND STRENGTH AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE LED TO THE CHOICE TO
USE NAM TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY AND POSSIBLE WINDY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WENT WITH A MAX OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER COASTAL MARINE ZONES 41 AND
42. MAINTAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
MARINE ZONES DUE TO SWELL. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS...VARIOUS
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT THROUGH ALMOST
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN GFS AND EC ONLY SHOWING MINOR
DIFFERENCES HANDLEING SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
USED THE 00Z GFS40 FOR GRIDS.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LEAST 2
WEAK TROUGHS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MAINLY RAIN
EXPECTED FOR NEAR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS. WIND REMAIN BELOW SMCR
LEVELS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHER OUTER COAST SUNDAY FOR WESTERLIES.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A 1040+ MB HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL
TRY TO PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AT THE SAME TIME A DEVELOPING 970 MB LOW MOVES NE INTO THE GULF.
THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONG GALES EXPECTED. ALSO THIS WILL LOW
COLDER AIR TO WORK DOWN INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON
MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY FOR HAINES
AREA AND PROBABLY A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR PAJN-PAY. ONE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND SHOULD SEE PRECIP GO BACK TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT
HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS AND SOLID SE GALES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. MAX GALES WITH STORM FOR GUSTS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NE GULF.

A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WITH WEAKER SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. AS THIS LOW DIGS SE LATE THURSDAY A SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS LEADS A
MUCH DRIER ATMO AND TO MODERATE TO STRONG CAA OVER THE PANHANDLE
AS 1050+ SURFACE HIGH BUILD ACROSS THE YUKON.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/MM