Small Craft Advisory 596, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
123 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...CYCLOGENETIC 982 MB LOW SYSTEM CENTERED 300 NM W
OF PASI IS TRACKING NW.  DEVELOPMENT WAS DELAYED BY POOR ACCESS
TO COLD AIRMASS FM THE NW.  THE GOES IR AND WV INDICATED
AN OLD AND WEAK OCCLUSION BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE COLD AMS
MOVG S ACRS THE AK PEN.  THE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH THIS
DELAY AND HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IS ACPTD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

NOTE AMDS TO WINDS IN MARINES SPCLY FOR NRN HLF OF PNHDL
THIS AFTN DUE TO THE RENEWED CYCLOGENEIS.

THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR HAINES LOOKS RIGHT WITHOUT ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
SKAGWAY HAS HAD THE ONSET OF SNOW BUT SHOULD RECEIVE A LESSER
AMOUNT AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HAINES WILL BE TOO WARM.
THE SNOW LEVEL IN JUNEAU IS DOWN TO ROUGHLY 600 FEET BUT WILL
RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW DELIVERS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE MEAN
TROUGH RETROGRADES OVER THE AKPEN BY SAT. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS
IT WILL HELP TO KEEP SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WITH THESE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE BUT WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE LOW
CENTER WILL BE WELL FURTHER WEST.

A 990 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 400 NM S OF THE CHARLOTTES FRI NIGHT
WILL MOVE E AND INTO SOUTHERN BC SAT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING BRINGING
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOWER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF SAT WILL MOVE E AND OVER THE PANHANDLE SUN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROM
THERE...THEY DIVERGE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE NEXT FRONT
WHICH IS SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON/TUE. WENT
WITH 12Z ECMWF TO TOUCH UP THE INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH SAT AND
THEN USED HPC GUIDANCE TO DO THE SAME MON. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.

SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ALONG THE OUTER
WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT MORNING. SMALL CRAFTS RETURN TO THE
OUTER WATERS MON AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AS BARRIER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY MON NIGHT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-033-035-041>043-051.

         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032-034-036-052.

JBT/MAM