Small Craft Advisory 430, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 080630 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1030 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-081400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER SE AK SUN EVENING WILL MOVE INTO CANADA
BY THE EARLY MON MORNING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ011-081400-
GLACIER BAY-
1035 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-081400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1030 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-081400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1030 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-081400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-081400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-081400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-081400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-081400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-081400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-081400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-081400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 081136
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-090100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ011-090100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-090100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-090100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-090100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-090100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-090100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-090100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-090100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-090100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-090100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-090100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2008 

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
431 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW
IN THE WESTERN GULF RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND RAIN BAND STRETCHING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH
ITS TRIPLE POINT JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. MIDDLETON ISLAND
RADAR SHOWS AN INTENSE RAIN BAND INVADING ONSHORE AND EXPANDING EAST
TO YAKUTAT AREA. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REPORTS LESS CLOUDS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE CONSOLIDATING RAPIDLY OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND BIORKA RADAR SHOWS AN ORGANIZING RAIN
BAND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONT. THIS LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS
ALSO GENERATED 25 TO 30 KTS EAST WIND AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS OVERNIGHT. BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHEAST WIND SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE INSIDE
PASSAGES REMAIN PRETTY WEAK UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THIS TIME.

ALL MODELS ARRIVED ON TIME AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE NORTH EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
RIDGE REBUILDS AND THE 06Z RUN NAM SHOWS A BIT FLATTING RIDGE TOP
ON MONDAY WHILE THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS MAINTAIN A BETTER RIDGE
TOP OVER THE PANHANDLE. USED THE GFS SOLUTION PRIMARILY BLENDING
WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY AND THE NAM AS A SMOOTHING
TOOL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE INCOMING FRONT...EXPECT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES WHILE MORE INLAND AND
SOUTHERN AREAS EXPECTING A DELAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREAS. WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATER BODY BUT DUE
TO LONG PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY THE PROGRESSIVE
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 103 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

LONG TERM...GFS THIS MORNING WAS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING A RIDGE AND UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE GULF MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. LIKEWISE WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW ON WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. AT THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD...GFS IS PLACING A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WHEREAS ECMWF LOCATES THIS SAME FEATURE FARTHER NORTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS AND THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS LONG
RANGE FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE. USED GFS FOR PRIMARY GUIDANCE.

THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND RAIN OVER ALL OF THE PANHANDLE. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT THE USUAL SURFACE RIDGE
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP PANHANDLE POPS AT CHANCE OR BETTER THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 17 TUESDAY MORNING SEP 09TH AND SPREAD SOUTH
DOWN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SPED
THIS FRONT UP SINCE YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADVANCED THIS FEATURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACCORDINGLY. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT SEPTEMBER 11TH AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IS NOT THAT STRONG NOR IS IT
PHASED WELL WITH THIS FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR
ASPECT OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST IS NOT AS GOOD AS OTHER
PORTIONS.

IN TERMS OF WINDS...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY 09 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...SMALL CRAFT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS ZONE
310 AND THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
MAY SEE MARGINAL GALES NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
10 SEPTEMBER AND ALSO AM EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY THIS TIME. STILL FAR TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR ZONE 27 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO WILL WATCH THIS
CLOSELY. DO NOT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK UP OVER LYNN CANAL UNTIL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE YUKON. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE OUTER
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SEPTEMBER 11TH DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AS INDICATED
ABOVE...HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE
IS NOT THAT GOOD SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

SJA