Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...LARGE SCALE FEATURES OVER THE AREA IS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF ALASKA. OTHER MAIN FEATURE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE MAIN FLOW IS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC (30-40N) AND THEN NORTHWARD TO
WESTERN ALASKA THEN OVER THE RIDGE TO NORTHWEST CANADA.

STORM TRACK FOR FIRST STORM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INLAND... WHILE A LATER FOR FRIDAY
ONWARD ON THE UPPER LEVEL BEHIND IT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
CUTTING EVEN THIS TRACK OFF FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH STILL NO MAJOR SURPRISES AS FIRST WARM
FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHILE A SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESENTLY A LITTLE NEAR SOUTH AND WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THAT WILL
MOVE TO ACROSS THE GULF AND SHOULD START TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE ECMWF TO BLEND IN TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT
IS A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER RUNS. OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES
FOR THE AREA ARE SMALL THOUGH. TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A
LITTLE BETTER WEATHER TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TO A SMALL EXTENT AS THEY WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AND A BIT FURTHER AWAY SO WILL ENJOY A BIT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW AND WILL BE A SHADE DRIER I BELIEVE.

A BAND OF MAX SMALL CRAFT DEVELOPING OVER PKZ052 FOR THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD BE FALLING OFF AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OTHER
SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS (WINDS AND SEAS) WITH A FEW
MORE FOR THE INNER CHANNELS AS WELL. MEANWHILE ANOTHER BAND OF 30
KT WINDS ARE FORMING ON THE SOUTH TO WEST SIDE OF THE LOW FOR
FRIDAY.

.LONG RANGE...STRONG HIGH 800 NM S OF KETCHIKAN HAS A RIDGE
ALOFT THAT EXTENDS NNW OVER CORDOVA.  AFTER THE STORM...THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE...THE RIDGE WILL
RAPIDLY GAIN AMPLITUDE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE POLAR FRONT
ZONE WILL CONSIST ON WAVES TRACKING N INTO THE WRN GULF OF
ALASKA UNTIL TUE WHEN A WAVE WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT TOWARD YAKUTAT THAT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THROUGH TUE...HWVR AS THE
HYDROMETEROLOGICAL CENTER HAS POINTED OUT...THE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD BEYOND TUE IS INCREASED.  CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE FACTORED
IN FOR BEYOND TUE.

EXISTING GRIDS ARE BEING BLENDED WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
MODEL...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL FACTORED IN ADDITIONALLY
BEGINNING WITH TUE NIGHT.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052

BMB JT

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