High Wind Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211019
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
119 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

AKZ018-211600-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
119 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
SKAGWAY AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND INTENSE
COLD AIR IS PRODUCING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-025-026-029-211600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T0100Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
119 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211350
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

AKZ018-212100-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.081221T2100Z-081222T1400Z/
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
450 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
TODAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 65 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES DIMINISHING TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-025-026-029-212100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
450 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 55 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211430
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

AKZ025-212100-
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0008.081221T1500Z-081221T2100Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES AS WELL. WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 55 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-212100-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.081221T2100Z-081222T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 65 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES DIMINISHING TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-026-029-212100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
HYDER
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 55 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211717
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
817 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

AKZ025-220130-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
817 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
MONDAY. 

STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAINLY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND CHANNEL
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-220130-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.081221T2100Z-081222T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
817 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST
MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 65 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES DIMINISHING TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-026-029-220130-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
HYDER
817 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 55 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211912
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1012 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

AKZ018-220100-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-081221T2100Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.081221T1912Z-081222T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1012 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
MONDAY. 

WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ARE EXPECTED GUST UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GUSTING TO 45 MPH OVER NIGHT. 

IN ADDITION WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR WHITE PASS WIND
CHILLS TO 45 BELOW ARE EXPECTED IN THAT REGION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL BUT WILL WARM AS THE WINDS SLOWLY DROP OFF. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-025-026-029-220100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-081222T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
1012 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY. 

HIGHEST GUSTS TO 55 MPH EXPECTED IN OR NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OR
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
242 PM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MAP ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WESTERN CANADA
AND NORTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF HAS AT LEAST 2 SEPARATE
CENTERS IN IT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS SHEARING OUT TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW ABOUT
400 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AND THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM INTERIOR PASSES DUE TO THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
PANHANDLE AS CLOUD BANDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE.

FORECAST REASONING: ANOTHER NICE BUT COLD DAY IN STORE FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD
SLIDE/DUMBBELL SOUTHEAST TO MOVE INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION
BETWEEN QUEEN CHARLOTTE AND VANCOUVER ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CIRRUS CLOUD DECK THAT IS SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
WILL DISSIPATE OR BE PULLED BACK OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW
SLIDING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER I THINK THAN LAST NIGHT AND TODAY BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE.
EXPECT TO SEE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE INTERIOR PASSES WILL
CONTINUE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT
AND IN EARLY SUNDAY...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LOE ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH LYNN CANAL. THE FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE
HEAVY OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SO HEADLINING THAT IN THE MARINE FCSTS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
USED THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND NAM AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY THROUGH SUNDAY. I HELD BACK
ON SOME OF THE WINDS BEING GENERATED BY THE PRESSURE FIELD AS
I THINK THEY WERE EXCESSIVE. MOST CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE WERE
MINIMAL I BELIEVE.

&&

.LONG TERM... GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A THREE WAVE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. COLD AIR TROUGHS ARE SITUATED THIS WEEKEND OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND SIBERIA WHILE A DRY RIDGE LIES BETWEEN THEM
OVER AK. MODELS SHOW THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BE RETORGRADING WWD
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE BUT THE SIBERIAN TROUGH HOLDS
STEADY. AS A RESULT THIS RATHER FLAT TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WILL SHARPEN AND AMPLIFY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WWD FROM
AK TO OVER THE BERING SEA AND N PACIFIC JUST E OF DATELINE. HPC
DISCUSSIONS HIGHLIGHT MODEL VARIANCE THAT GROWS STARTING TUE AND I
AGREE FAVORING BLENDED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF GFS ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS FOR THE MED AND LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIODS IS WAY TO GO
FOR NOW. BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH THE IDEA OF DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING OVER PANHANDLE UNTIL TUE-WED. SHORT WAVES
EJECTING OUT OF ASIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N PAC RIDGE
EARLY IN WEEK...WEAKEN...AND TURN SE ACROSS GULF OF AK MID WEEK.
THIS OVER WATER TRAJECTORY IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT PATTERN
AND SHOULD HELP TEMPS MODIFY UPWARD A BIT DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE JET CORE STAYS S OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH MEANS
PROBABLY NO DIRECT HITS FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER...PLUMES OF HIGHER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP...MEANING
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN AIR... LEAD ME TO BELIEVE CLOUDY SKIES
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUE-WED AND AGAIN ABOUT FRI. IF FLOW INTO SE AK ENDS UP BEING MORE
MOIST THAN IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE COLD AIR MAY
BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FOR NOW WE WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH
EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD PERIODS OF SNOW MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018-019-025-026-029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-022-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031>035-043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/AINSWORTH