Gale Warning 91, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OUT THERE LATE THIS
MORNING IN HAINES...SKAGWAY...AND YAKUTAT. ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...SNOW CHANGED TO RAIN AROUND MID MORNING VICINITY SITKA.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR HYDER AS
WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.

VERY LITTLE WIND TODAY EXCEPT FOR COASTAL ZONE 52 WHERE EASTERLY
GALES WILL BLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A WEAKENING LOW
TRACKS NNW TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A 986 MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF WHILE DEEPENING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONNECT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TAPPING A MOISTURE SOURCE THAT EXTEND NEARLY TO HAWAII SO SOME
PANHANDLE LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS MAY SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS
SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU AREA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE HYDER
AREA. SKAGWAY AND HAINES SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1 INCH AS WELL...BUT
SNOW RATES NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING TO ABOUT SUMNER STRAIT
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IT BACK NORTH TO ICY STRAIT
TOMORROW. AND SO...WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ARRIVES IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES IT SHOULD BE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.

IN TERMS OF WIND...THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
STEADILY INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT AND BY TOMORROW MORNING WE
SHOULD HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN ALL THE INNER CHANNELS AND
COASTAL MARINE ZONES WITH GALES IN OFFSHORE WATERS. BY
NOON...GALES ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL MARINE ZONE 43 AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CROSS SOUND. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST AS WELL AS ZONE 28 BY LATE MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL SPREAD TO ZONES 22 AND 26 IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ZONE 23...THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EXPOSED EASTERN SHORE OF
BARANOF ISLAND SOUTH OF POINT GARDNER. IN ZONE 22...STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER AND ON
EXPOSED HEADLANDS ALONG CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT WHERE AN
EASTERLY GALE IS EXPECTED. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING. FCF

MORNING IN HAINES...SKAGWAY...AND YAKUTAT. ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...SNOW CHANGED TO RAIN AROUND MID MORNING VICINITY SITKA.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR HYDER AS
WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.

VERY LITTLE WIND TODAY EXCEPT FOR COASTAL ZONE 52 WHERE EASTERLY
GALES WILL BLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A WEAKENING LOW
TRACKS NNW TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A 986 MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF WHILE DEEPENING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONNECT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TAPPING A MOISTURE SOURCE THAT EXTEND NEARLY TO HAWAII SO SOME
PANHANDLE LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS MAY SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS
SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU AREA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE HYDER
AREA. SKAGWAY AND HAINES SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1 INCH AS WELL...BUT
SNOW RATES NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING TO ABOUT SUMNER STRAIT
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IT BACK NORTH TO ICY STRAIT
TOMORROW. AND SO...WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ARRIVES IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES IT SHOULD BE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.

IN TERMS OF WIND...THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
STEADILY INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT AND BY TOMORROW MORNING WE
SHOULD HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN ALL THE INNER CHANNELS AND
COASTAL MARINE ZONES WITH GALES IN OFFSHORE WATERS. BY
NOON...GALES ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL MARINE ZONE 43 AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CROSS SOUND. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST AS WELL AS ZONE 28 BY LATE MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL SPREAD TO ZONES 22 AND 26 IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ZONE 23...THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EXPOSED EASTERN SHORE OF
BARANOF ISLAND SOUTH OF POINT GARDNER. IN ZONE 22...STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER AND ON
EXPOSED HEADLANDS ALONG CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT WHERE AN
EASTERLY GALE IS EXPECTED. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE PATTERN CONTINUING TO EVOLVE WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ROUGHLY
2 MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 50 NORTH.  ONE OVER BY THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE OTHER NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA. OCCASIONAL SYSTEMS ARE SWINGING IN
FROM THE WEST REINFORCING THE ONE SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A SYSTEM EXITING THE PANHANDLE...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  LOOKS AS
IF THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WITH GENERAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUING.

MAKING ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES AS WILL ALSO DO A NUDGE TO A
ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE GRIDS TO ABOUT FRIDAY OR SO.  WILL BE
LEAVING THE EXTENDED PERIODS ALONE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE PKZ022-036-041>043-051>052
         SMCR PKZ021-031-034-035

FCF - BMB

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