Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 291230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 29 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-300100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
 A 985 MB GALE 250 NM W OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN
TO FILL. A DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-300100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST TUE JAN 29 2008 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL
BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL.  
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND REMAIN THE
EMPHASIS OF THE SHORT RANGE FCST PERIOD THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON.
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO AT SEA LEVEL IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY ZONES
AT MID DAY. N WIND INTO SKAGWAY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH CAUSING
BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS TO -30F. WINDS ALSO VERY STRONG OUT
OF COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS MORNING. PT BISHOP SOUTH OF JNU
IS NOTABLY STRONG...G30KT...FOR A RELATIVELY WIND SHELTERED
SENSOR. LOCALIZED NE OUTFLOW GUSTS 40-50KTS ALSO OBSERVED BY
SENSOR OR SAR SATELLITE NEAR STIKINE RIVER MOUTH ...EARNEST
SOUND...GREY ISLET NEAR PORTLAND CANAL...AND OUTER COAST. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO BE EXPOSED TO COLD AND WIND FOR
MORE THAN 30-60 MINS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN INNER WATERS WHERE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERSTRUCTURE ICING. MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN N CENTRAL GULF PRETTY WELL
INITIALIZED BY MODELS HAS BEEN MOVING ENE AND NOW STARTING TO
TURN TWD SE. VERY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
DEFORMATION OF WIND FIELD ALOFT OVER NRN GULF IS CAUSING LIGHT
SNOW FROM PWS TO YAKUTAT. THIS WONT LAST MUCH LONGER. MAIN
FRONTAL BAND WILL BRUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST AND SRN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AND MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SE
PANHANDLE ZONES OVERNIGHT HOURS. I UPDATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRID
FCSTS TO SHOW SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING LOW WHICH HAS SIDE EFFECT
CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION FCSTS. FALLING PRESSURES OFFSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND CONTINUED STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL KEEP VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUE. CLOUD COVER FROM THE PASSING FRONT
OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR NOT AS COLD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT STILL
VERY COLD. TA

.LONG RANGE...THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A BITTER COLD CONDITION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LATEST RUN AK-GFS EVEN HINTS A COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  TRAVERSING SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BUT IN DISTANCE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE LAST LOW MAY
BRING SOME SNOW  FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND THE
PASSING LOWS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STAY TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PASSAGES.

THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE MODIFIED SLOWLY AFTER WEDNESDAY
BUT STILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE CONSENSUS
OF 12Z MODEL RUN KEEPS SHOWING A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WEAK LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN GULF THURSDAY EVENING
AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTH
TRACK OF THE INCOMING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.  THIS
LOW HAS AN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ESEWD AND APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.  OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 12Z
ECMWF DELAYS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THUS THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER BUT LEANING ON THE GFS/LR TO
KEEP THE CONSISTENCY.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH IN THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL BE HEADING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ019-025>026-029.
      ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AKZ018>019.
MARINE...GALES PKZ012>013-052.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ALL REMAINING MARINE ZONES.
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PKZ011>013-031-034>035.